XN000022-1991-08-23 — Page 6

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FRIDAY, AUGUST 23, 1991

GIVEN A HIGHER FORECAST FOR RE-EXPORTS AND A FASTER INCREASE IN RETAINED IMPORTS FOR MEETING LOCAL DEMAND, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF IMPORTS OF GOODS IS REVISED UPWARD FROM 10.7% 70 [4.6%.

THE DEMAND FOR TRADE-RELATED SERVICES SHOULD INCREASE IN WITH THE GROWTH IN OVERALL TRADE, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE BETTER THE EARLIER FORECAST.

LINE THAN

WAR ON ON TRAVEL AND TOURISM, THE ADVERSE IMPACT OF THE GULF

EXPENDITURE HONG KONG'S TOURIST RECEIPTS HAS BEEN ABSORBED, WHILE THE OF HONG KONG'S RESIDENTS TRAVELLING ABROAD HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE.

OF EXPORTS OF TRUS THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS

AND THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL SERVICES IS RAISED FROM 5% TO 6%, TERMS OF IMPORTS OF SERVICES FROM 7.5% TO 8%.

DIFFERENTIAL RATES OF INCREASE, EXPECTED TO SHOW A SMALL

DECLINE

NET EXPORTS OF COMPARED

THE WITH

THESE WITH!

IS SERVICES PRECEDING YEAR.

5%

LOCALLY, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY- GROWTH RATE OF 3.5% IN

THIS IS FASTER THAN THE REAL TERMS. FORECAST EARLIER. THE HIGH TAKE-UP RATE OF RESIDENTIAL FLATS CAN EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE SPENDING ON DURABLE GOODS.

BE

SPENDING ON SERVICES,

CONSUMER

FORECAST,

NOTWITHSTANDING

PARTICULARLY THOSE RELATED TO

RECENT THE

TREND OF ABROAD, IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

REVISION IN THE SUPPORT LENDS SPENDING

OF THE CURRENT

TRAVELLING

TO THIS SOMF DAMPENING

UPWARD EFFECT

INFLATION ON CONSUMER DEMAND.

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF GOVERNMENT · CONSUMPTION

REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 6%.

EXPENDITURE

FIXED

THE

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS OF GROSS DOMESTIC CAPITAL FORMATION IS RAISED FROM 5.7% TO 7.1%, MAINLY REFLECTING FASTER INCREASE IN PRIVATE SECTOR EXPENDITURE ON PLANT AND MACHINERY.

PLANT

THE CURRENT CONSTRUCTION IN INCREASE LESS

THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF PUBLIC SECTOR EXPENDITURE ON AND MACHINERY REMAINS UNCHANGED. HOWEVER, JUDGING FROM CONSTRUCTION WORKLOAD, EXPENDITURE ON BUILDING AND BOTH THE PRIVATE AND THE PUBLIC SECTORS IS LIKELY TO RAPIDLY THAN AS FORPLAST EARLIER.

OVERALL, THE REVISED FORECAST OF THE GDP GROWTH RATE, AT 4%, IS IMPLIES STEADY CONSISTENT WITH THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE SO FAR AND GROWTH FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR.

OF THE INDEX (A)

HAVING REGARD TO THE ACTUAL OPTTURN IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR,

THE FORECAST RATE 01 INCREASE IN THE CONSUMER PRICE Ftht 1991 AS A WIROLF IS REVISED UPWARD FROM 11% TO 12%.

+

ALONG WITH A STRONGER RECENT EASING OF THE LABOUR MARKET

·OIL PRODUCT AND STABLE WORLD COMMODITY PRICES (INCLUDING TS CONDUCIVE TO A FURTHER MODERATION OF INFLATION.

THE

US

DOLLAR

PRICES),

/HOWEVER, AS