XN000022-1991-03-06 — Page 18

17

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 6, 1991

WITH SUCH A GROWTH RATE FOR THE GDP, HE SAID THE ECONOMY WAS EXPECTED TO GROW AT A RATE BROADLY COMPARABLE WITH THAT IN THE LATTER PART OF LAST YEAR.

"CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS AND IMPORTED INFLATION, PARTLY THE RESULT OF WEAKNESS IN THE US DOLLAR, WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT LOCAL PRICE LEVELS. IN VIEW OF THESE FACTORS, I FORECAST THAT THE CONSUMER INDEX (A) WILL INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE OF 9.5 PER CENT IN 1991, FINANCIAL SECRETARY SAID.

PRICE THE

HE ADDED THAT THE GDP DEFLATOR WAS EXPECTED TO RISE BY 8.5 PER CENT IN 1991, SIMILAR TO THE INCREASE IN 1990.

"THIS IMPLIES A GDP GROWTH RATE OF 12.3 PER CENT IN CURRENT PRICE TERMS. ON THIS BASIS, HONG KONG'S PER CAPITA GDP IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND HK$105,000, OR US$13,400, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO RANK AMONGST THE HIGHEST IN ASIA, SIR PIERS SAID.

*

HE POINTED OUT THAT THE WORLD WAS BESET BY UNCERTAINTIES.

HE SAID THE GULF WAR AND ITS AFTERMATH, THE POSSIBILITY OF A LONGER RECESSION IN SOME OF OUR MAJOR MARKETS, THE PROBLEMS SURROUNDING THE TRADE NEGOTIATIONS UNDER THE AUSPICES OF THE GATT, ALL RESULTED IN A WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION IN WHICH THE PERFORMANCE OF EVERY ECONOMY, PARTICULARLY TRADING ECONOMIES SUCH AS OUR

OWN, WAS BOUND TO BE AFFECTED.

TURNING ΤΟ HONG KONG'S MAJOR MARKETS, SIR PIERS SAID THE CURRENT WEAKNESS OF THE UNITED STATES ECONOMY CONTINUED TO DAMPEN THE TERRITORY'S EXPORT PROSPECTS THERE.

ON THE OTHER HAND, FURTHER EXPORT OPPORTUNITIES WILL FLOW FROM THE ROBUST PERFORMANCE OF THE GERMAN ECONOMY, THE IMPROVED ECONOMIC SITUATION IN CHINA, AND THE DYNAMIC GROWTH OF THE ASIA PACIFIC REGION GENERALLY.

"I EXPECT, THEREFORE, THAT OUR EXPORT MARKETS WILL CONTINUE то DIVERSIFY, EVEN THOUGH THE UNITED STATES WILL STILL BE OUR SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT MARKET, HE SAID.

14

SIR PIERS SAID HONG KONG'S RE-EXPORT TRADE HAD BEEN OF PARTICULAR SIGNIFICANCE.

"CONTINUING THE TREND IN RECENT YEARS, GROWTH IS EXPECTED ΤΟ REMAIN STRONG IN 1991.

"THIS REFLECTS ROTH THE IMPORTANCE OF HONG KONG'S REGIONAL ENTREPOT AND THE SUSTAINED DEVELOPMENT OF OUTWARD ACTIVITIES ACROSS THE BORDER, HE SAID.

ROLE

AS A PROCESSING

OVERALL, RE-EXPORTS WERE FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 15 PER CENT

IN 1991.

THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY SAID AS IN THE PAST FEW YEARS, HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS WERE LIKELY TO GROW AT A MUCH SLOWER RATE THAN ITS RE-EXPORTS.

/"OUR PERFORMANCE

---