XN000022-1990-05-07 — Page 3

2

MONDAY, MAY 7, 1990

THIS CONFIRMS AND REINFORCES THE NEED FOR OPEN LEARNING IN THE LONG-TERM, BUT PROBABLY POINTS TO THE NEED FOR SOME RETRAINING IN THE SHORT-TERM. FORTUNATELY THE NUMBERS ARE NOT LARGE.

UPPER: SECONDARY LEVEL (COMPLETION OF SECONDARY 5):

THE PROJECTED SHORTFALL OF PERSONS WITH TRADITIONAL SECONDARY DEMAND.

49,600 IN 1996 SUGGESTS THAT EDUCATION ARE STILL IN GREAT

AS THE PLANNED PROVISION OF SENIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL PLACES WILL REACH 85 PER CENT OF RELEVANT AGE GROUP BY 1993 (OR 95 PER CENT IF TECHNICAL EQUIVALENTS IN THE TECHNICAL INSTITUTES AND INDUSTRIAL TRAINING CENTRES ARE INCLUDED), THERE IS LITTLE SCOPE FOR FUTHER EXPANSION.

SIXTH FORM LEVEL (INCLUDING SECONDARY 7):

THE SHORTFALL OF 23,500 IN 1996 ALSO INDICATES A STRONG DEMAND FOR MANPOWER AT THIS LEVEL OF EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT. THE PRESENT APPROVED POLICY IS TO PROVIDE SIXTH FORM PLACES FOR ONE-THIRD OF THE STUDENTS ENTERING FORM 4 TWO YEARS EARLIER. IT WOULD BE NECESSARY TO REVIEW THE PRESENT PROVISION OF SIXTH FORM PLACES.

TECHNICAL AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION AT CRAFT AND TECHNICIAN LEVELS:

THERE WILL BE A SMALL SURPLUS OF 3,300 PERSONS AT CRAFT LEVEL AND 5,000 PERSONS AT TECHNICIAN LEVEL IN 1996, INDICATING THAT SUPPLY AND REQUIREMENT AT THESE LEVELS WILL BECOME MORE OR LESS IN BALANCE.

NON-DEGREE TERTIARY LEVEL:

THE LARGE SURPLUS OF 17,

17,300 INCLUDES SOME 9,000 LEGAL IMMIGRANTS FROM CHINA, WHO MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO MEET ALL THE CRITERIA FOR LOCAL EMPLOYMENT. THE SURPLUS IS PERHAPS MORE APPARENT THAN REAL.

FIRST DEGREE AND POST-GRADUATE LEVELS:

THERE WILL BE A SHORTFALL OF 36,700 PERSONS WITH FIRST AND A SURPLUS OF 27,300 AT POST-GRADUATE LEVEL. TAKEN TOGETHER, WILL STILL BE A SMALL SHORTFALL OF 9,400 PERSONS WITH QUALIFICATIONS IN 1996.

DEGREE

THERE

DEGREE

IMPACT OF

ON THE FACE OF IT THIS IS WORRYING. BUT AS THE FULL THE TERTIARY EXPANSION PROGRAMME WILL ONLY BE FELT IN 1997, IN WHICH YEAR 15,000 FIRST DEGREE HOLDERS WILL EMERGE, THE SHORTFALL IN 1996 WILL BE CONSIDERABLY REDUCED FROM 1997 ONWARDS.

/THUS, THERE