XN000022-1988-05-04 — Page 31

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WEDNESDAY, MAY 4, 1988

ALSO, THERE PROPORTION OF THOSE SECTOR.

INCREASE IN

THE

WAS SOME EVIDENCE OF AN LEAVING WHO WERE FROM THE MIDDLE MANAGEMENT

* HAVING SAID THAT, THE BEST ESTIMATE WE CAN MAKE IS THAT IN 1987, THE NUMBER OF HONG KONG STUDENTS GRADUATING FROM LOCAL OR OVERSEAS TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS EXCEEDED THE NET NUMBERS LOST THROUGH EMIGRATION BY A WIDE MARGIN.

"LAST YEAR, OUR TERTIARY INSTITUTIONS PRODUCED NO FEWER THAN 4,822 NEW LOCAL GRADUATES. THE FORECAST FOR THIS YEAR

IS 5,725, FOR 1989 IT IS 6,470, FOR 1990, 7,240 AND FOR 1991, 8,270.

"THEREAFTER, THE PACE WILL ACCELERATE AS NEW LEARNING INSTITUTIONS COME ON STREAM, || HE SAID.

ALSO A LARGE NUMBER OF HONG KONG YOUNG PEOPLE WHO WENT ABROAD TO STUDY HAD RETURNED TO WORK HERE AFTER GRADUATION, WHILE THERE MIGHT ALSO BE LOSSES AS GRADUATES WERE AMONG THOSE WHO EMIGRATED, AND GAINS WHEN SOME OF THEM RETURNED AFTER OBTAINING A FOREIGN PASSPORT.

"TAKING ALL THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT, AND AFTER MAKING A SERIES OF HEROIC ASSUMPTIONS ON SUCH MATTERS AS THE PROPORTION OF THOSE GOING OVERSEAS TO STUDY WHO SUCCESSFULLY GRADUATE, WHAT PROPORTION OF THEM RETURN TO HONG KONG, WHAT PROPORTION OF EMIGRANTS, AND RETURNED EMIGRANTS, ARE GRADUATES, OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT IN 1987, OUR COMMUNITY ACHIEVED A NET GAIN IN THE NUMBER OF GRADUATES OF THE ORDER OF 3,000, MR TSAO SAID.

SEEM ENCOURAGING

ALTHOUGH THE FIGURE MIGHT

ON THE SURFACE, MR TSAO POINTED OUT THAT A FRESH GRADUATE GAINED DID NOT EQUATE IMMEDIATELY WITH AN EXPERIENCED MAN LOST.

||

"AND I WOULD BE THE FIRST TO ADMIT THAT OUR INFORMATION ON THE SITUATION IS AT BEST PATCHY, AND LESS THAN WHOLLY RELIABLE, HE SAID, ADDING THAT THE LACK OF COMPREHENSIVE FIGURES WAS BECAUSE OF THE COMPLETE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT ENJOYED BY RESIDENTS AND THE MOBILITY OF THE POPULATION.

THE

"THE ONLY STATISTICS DIRECTLY UNDER THE CONTROL OF GOVERNMENT ARE THOSE ORIGINALLY OBTAINED FOR OTHER PURPOSES WHICH ALSO INCIDENTALLY SHED SOME LIGHT ON MIGRATION TRENDS, OR WHICH CAN BE PARTIALLY ADAPTED FOR THE PURPOSE.

"SOME INFORMATION IS ALSO OBTAINED THROUGH VOLUNTARY

RETURNS,

**

HE SAID.

THE RESULT OF THESE INADEQUACIES WAS THAT ALL THE FIGURES QUOTED WERE ONLY ESTIMATES, AND SHOULD BE TREATED WITH A DEGREE OF CAUTION, MR TSAO STRESSED.

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