XN000022-1988-04-21 — Page 18

THURSDAY, APRIL 21, 1988

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AVOID UNREALISTICALLY CONSERVATIVE REVENUE ESTIMATES

UNREALISTICALLY CONSERVATIVE REVENUE ESTIMATES MUST BE AVOIDED IN ORDER TO ALLOW THE SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH PUBLIC SPENDING TO BK COMMENSURATE WITH THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, DR THE HON DANIEL TSE TOLD THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TODAY (THURSDAY).

SPEAKING DURING THE BUDGET DEBATE, DR TSE EXPRESSED OVER THE GROSS INACCURACIES OF THE GOVERNMENT'S PROJECTIONS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) FIGURES IN THE LAST TWO YEARS.

HE NOTED THAT IN 1986, THE GOVERNMENT PROJECTED OF 4.5 PER CENT, AND IT TURNED OUT TO BE 16 PER CENT.

CONCERN IN THE

A GDP GROWTH

IN 1987, IT PROJECTED A GROWTH OF LESS THAN NINE PER CENT AND NOW IT WAS 13.6 PER CENT OR POSSIBLY HIGHER, DESPITE THE STOCK MARKET CRASH LAST OCTOBER.

"A PRACTICE OF OVERLY CONSERVATIVE REVENUE ESTIMATE, WHEN CARRIED OUT AS A MATTER OF COURSE, WOULD IN THE LONG RUN RENDER THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMMUNITY INCOMPATIBLE WITH THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY OF THE TERRITORY, HE SAID.

DR TSE SAID THAT IF A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH IN BUDGET ESTIMATES MUST BE CONTINUED ON ACCOUNT

OF THE OPEN NATURE OF OUR ECONOMY, WHICH WAS SUBJECT TO DIRECT INFLUENCES FROM THE OUTSIDE, A MID-YEAR BUDGET REVISION EXERCISE SHOULD BE ADOPTED.

THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME BADLY-NEEDED COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT POLICIES OR PROJECTS, WHICH WERE LEFT OUT IN THE ORIGINAL ESTIMATES, TO BE RECONSIDERED FOR IMPLEMENTATION IN THE LIGHT OF THE MID-YEAR GROWTH OF THE ECONOMY.

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ALTERNATIVELY, PART OF THE SURPLUS OF THE PREVIOUS YEAR COULD BE TRANSFERRED TO THE NEXT YEAR AS AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF INCOME DESIGNATED FOR A SPECIFIC PURPOSE.

中中

TAKING FOR INSTANCE THE HUGE SURPLUS OF OVER $10 BILLION IN 1987, DR TSE SAID A PART OF THIS COULD BE SET ASIDE FOR SPECIAL PROJECTS DESIGNED TO BRIDGE THE GAPS IN THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OF OUR COMMUNITY, WHICH COULD NOT BE CLOSED BY THE INCREMENTAL FUNDING

PROVISION.

HE POINTED OUT THAT THERE WAS ALSO A WELL-RECOGNISED GAP BETWEEN THE PRESENT RESEARCH STRENGTH IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AND THE NEED FOR ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY IN OUR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT, AND SAID THAT A VERY SUBSTANTIAL INJECTION OF RESEARCH FUNDS WOULD BE NECESSARY IF THIS GAP WAS TO BE CLOSED WITHOUT MUCH DELAY.

GAP BETWEEN

ANOTHER GAP HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE CLOSED WAS THE THE QUANTITY AND THE QUALITY OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION.

"AREAS SUCH