XN000022-1984-12-15 — Page 4

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SATURDAY, DECEMBER 15, 1984

+WE HAVE HAD TO CHOOSE BETWEEN STICKING TO ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE STUDIES AND RE-EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF CHANGES AT A LATER STAGE OR SOMEHOW TRYING TO RECONCILE DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS MADE FOR THE PURPOSE OF DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE STUDIES AT DIFFERENT TIMES AS WE WENT ALONG, HE SAID.

EITHER APPROACH HAD ITS DISADVANTAGES1 THE FIRST ATTRACTED CRITICISMS ABOUT +OUT-OF-DATE+ ASSUMPTIONS, WHILE THE SECOND LED TO DOUBTS ABOUT INCONSISTENCIES+.

MR EASON SAID THAT RELATED TO THIS PROBLEM OF TIME AND THE DURABILITY OF ASSUMPTIONS WAS THAT OF HOW MUCH TIME TO ALLOW FOR PLANNING STUDIES,

+TOO SHORT A PERIOD LEADS TO HASTE AND SHORT CUTS TOO LONG CREATES DIFFICULTIES OVER THE VALIDITY OF ASSUMPTIONS AND FINDINGS. HENCE, WE WERE CONSCIOUS OF BOTH DANGERS IN CONDUCTING SUB-REGIONAL STUDIES AT WHAT SEEMED A CRACKING PACE TO SOME BUT TO TAKE TOO LONG TO OTHERS.+

MR EASON SAID THAT THE LANDS AND WORKS BRANCH'S STRATEGIC PLANNING UNIT HAD ADOPTED THE OPTIMISATION PROCESSES USING COMPUTERS TO SELECT CONFIGURATIONS OF LAND USE AND TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE FROM WHICH POSSIBLE PATTERNS OF STRATEGIC GROWTH COULD BE CHOSEN.

HE SAID THAT OPTIMISATION ENABLED THE HANDLING OF THE QUANTITIES OF STATISTICAL DATA WHICH IT WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN IMPOSSIBLE TO DEAL WITH,

A LARGE NUMBER OF OTHER PEOPLE, REPRESENTING MANY GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS AND SECRETARIAT BRANCHES, AS WELL AS PROFESSIONAL STAFF FROM CONSULTANT FIRMS, HAD CONTRIBUTED TO THE TERRITORIAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY FORMULATION PROCESS.

OVER THE FOUR-YEAR PERIOD, NUMEROUS REPORTS WERE MADE TO THE LAND DEVELOPMENT POLICY COMMITTEE, CHAIRED BY THE CHIEF SECRETARY.

IN SOME INSTANCES DISTRICT BOARDS WERE BRIEFED ON THE SUB- REGIONAL STUDIES, THE EXECUTIVE COUNCIL AND UMELCO WERE ALSO BRIEFED ANNUALLY ON PROGRESS.

+DETAILED FEASIBILITY STUDIES OF POTENTIAL HARBOUR RECLAMATIONS WILL BE UNDERTAKEN OVER THE NEXT YEAR OR SO, SO THAT THE MOMENTUM OF DEVELOPMENT CAN BE MAINTAINED ON THE SCALE NECESSARY WHEN THE NEW TOWNS PROGRAMMES BEGIN TO RUN DOWN IN THE EARLY 1990'S,+ MR EASON SAID.

THE DEPUTY PROJECT MANAGER OF TSUEN WAN NEW TOWN, DR EDWARD PRYOR, WHO WAS AMONG THE FOUR GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS SPEAKING, THEN GAVE A BRIEF SUMMARY OF THE FIVE SUB-REGIONAL STUDIES, FROM WHICH TWO ALTERNATIVE GROWTH PATTERNS HAD EMERGED.

/DR PRYOR,