XN000022-1983-11-22 — Page 3

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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1983

THUS THE PREDICTED ULTIMATE RIDERSHIP OF THE SYSTEM HAD CHANGED VERY LITTLE, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD DEVELOP LATER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED, MR SCOTT POINTED OUT.

+THEREFORE, THE VIABILITY OF THE LRT IS ESSENTIALLY UNALTERED, EVEN IF THE TIMING HAS CHANGED, HE EMPHASISED.

HE ADDED THAT THE CONSULTANTS WHO CONDUCTED THE NORTH WESTERN NEW TERRITORIES BASE STRATEGY STUDIES HAD NOTED THAT THE LRT SYSTEM HAD THE POTENTIAL TO PROVIDE THE BEST LOCAL PUBLIC TRANSPORT SYSTEM IN HONG KONG AND TO GIVE THE WESTERN NEW TERRITORIES A FIRM FOUNDATION FOR DEVELOPMENT.

HE SAID THAT BY THE MID-1990S, THE WESTERN NEW TERRITORIES WOULD BE A CONURBATION CONSISTING OF THE FOUR URBAN COMMUNITIES OF TUEN MUN, YUEN LONG, TIN SHUI WAI AND THE CASTLE PEAK ROAD CORRIDOR. THIS CONURBATION, WHICH WILL HOUSE 840 000 PEOPLE BY 1996, WOULD BE SERVED BY THE LRT SYSTEM.

MR SCOTT SAID CAREFUL CONSIDERATION HAD BEEN GIVEN TO THE BUS OPTION, AND WHILE IT HAD A SHORT-TERM ADVANTAGE, THE LRT WAS JUDGED MORE SUITABLE IN THE LONGER TERM.

+THE CONSORTIA'S ANALYSES AND PROPOSALS SHOW THAT A HIGH QUALITY RAIL SERVICE WITH THE USER CONVENIENCE OF A TRAM, BUT THE PROTECTED TRACKS AND SERVICE QUALITY OF A CONVENTIONAL RAILWAY, CAN BE PROVIDED FOR A COST IMPLYING FARE LEVELS ACCEPTABLE TO PASSENGERS, HE EXPLAINED.

+THE BUS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LOWER INITIAL USER COSTS, BUT WOULD BE MORE EXPENSIVE TO USE IN THE LONGER TERM. IT WOULD NOT HAVE THE SAME CAPACITY AS AN LRT TO EXPAND TO ABSORB ADDITIONAL DEMAND AS THE REGION EXPANDS, AND ITS QUALITY OF SERVICE WOULD EVENTUALLY BE SEVERELY AFFECTED BY CONGESTION.+

COMMENTING ON THE PROPOSED INVOLVEMENT OF THE KCRC IN THE PROJECT. MR SCOTT SAID THE CORPORATION WAS A NATURAL CHOICE. IT HAS THE POWER TO RAISE LOANS; IT IS PROJECTED TO BE GENERATING A CASH FLOW SURPLUS BY THE LATE 1980S; ITS MANAGEMENT HAS BEEN STRENGTHENED AND DEVELOPED TO MANAGE A MODERN ELECTRIC RAILWAY; IT HAS THE CAPACITY TO EXPAND AND TAKE ON THE LRT AND PROFITS WOULD GO TO THE PUBLIC SECTOR, RATHER THAN TO A PRIVATE OPERATOR.

HE ESTIMATED THAT, SUBJECT TO THE KCRC'S OWN INVESTIGATION OF VIABILITY AND ITS ACCEPTANCE OF THE COMMITMENT, THE FIRST SERVICES OF THE LRT COULD BE COMMISSIONED LATE IN 1987, WHICH WAS IN GOOD TIME TO MATCH THE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF TUEN MUN.

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