XN000022-1983-05-23 — Page 4

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MONDAY, MAY 23, 1983

FOR THE 'WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE, RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS' SECTOR, DETERIORATION IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER WAS REPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF FIRMS IN THE SECTOR. THIS COULD PARTLY BE ATTRIBUTED TO SEASONAL FACTORS. BUSINESS IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE MODERATELY FOR THE SECOND QUARTER IN THIS SECTOR.

FIRMS IN THE OTHER SERVICES' SECTOR, WHICH INCLUDE BANKING, TRANSPORTATION AND MISCELLANEOUS BUSINESS SERVICES, EXPERIENCED A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL DETERIORATION IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER, WHICH WAS CONTRARY TO THEIR PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT BUSINESS UPTURN. THEY PREDICT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR THE SECOND QUARTER.

WITHIN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR, THE TEXTILES', 'FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS', 'ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, APPLIANCES AND SUPPLIES' AND 'ELECTRONICS INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCED SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND ANTICIPATE A SIGNIFICANT UPTREND TO CONTINUE IN THE SECOND QUARTER. THE OTHER MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES EXPERIENCED DECLINES OF VARYING DEGREES IN THE FIRST QUARTER, BUT THEY ALL LOOK FORWARD TO IMPROVEMENTS IN BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR THE SECOND QUARTER, ESPECIALLY IN THE 'PLASTICS' "WEARING APPAREL AND WATCHES AND CLOCKS INDUSTRIES IN WHICH EXPECTATIONS FOR IMPROVEMENTS ARE STRONG.

FIRMS IN THE 'HOTELS BUSINESS REPORTED A DECLINE IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER DUE TO SEASONAL FACTORS AND EXPECT AN UPTURN FOR THE SECOND QUARTER. AS FOR FIRMS IN THE WHOLESALE AND RETAIL' TRADE AND THE 'RESTAURANTS' BUSINESS, FURTHER DECLINE IN BUSINESS IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND QUARTER, AFTER EXPERIENCING A DETERIORATION IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER. THIS IS ALSO MAINLY DUE TO SEASONAL EFFECTS. THE 'BANKS' AND THE TRANSPORTATION' BUSINESSES BOTH REPORTED SHARP DECLINES IN BUSINESS IN THE FIRST QUARTER. THIS HAD NOT BEEN EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY.

PRICE COMPETITION, INSUFFICIENT BUSINESS ORDERS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN EXCHANGE RATES WERE THE MAJOR PROBLEMS EXPERIENCED BY FIRMS IN THE 'MANUFACTURING' SECTOR IN GENERAL DURING THE FIRST QUARTER,

THE PROBLEM OF INSUFFICIENT BUSINESS ORDERS IS EXPECTED TO EASE IN THE SECOND QUARTER, WHILE THE OTHER TWO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WITHIN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, THE ORDER POSITION IS DEFINITELY IMPROVING AS THE NUMBER OF FIRMS INDICATING INSUFFICIENT BUSINESS ORDER SHOWS A MARKED DECLINE.

IN THE 'CONSTRUCTION' SECTOR, PRICE COMPETITION FROM LOCAL FIRMS AND INSUFFICIENT BUSINESS CONTRACTS WERE STILL REPORTED AS THE MAJOR PROBLEMS FOR THE FIRST QUARTER. THESE TWO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE SECOND QUARTER.

IN THE 'WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE, FIRMS CONSIDERED PRICE COMPETITION, INSUFFICIENT BUSINESS AND UNCERTAINTIES IN EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATION TO BE THE MAJOR PROBLEMS BOTH FOR THE FIRST AND SECOND QUARTERS.

/AS FOR