XN000022-1983-05-23 — Page 2

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MONDAY, MAY 23, 1983

DOMESTIC EXPORT TRADE RECOVERY CONTINUING

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THE TRADE FIGURES FOR APRIL SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR INCREASE IN OVERALL DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF OVER 16 PER CENT, INDICATING THAT THE DOMESTIC EXPORT TRADE RECOVERY WAS CONTINUING. A SIMILAR RECOVERY WAS BEING SEEN IN RE-EXPORTS, A GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN SAID TODAY.

ASSESSING THE PRESENT STATE OF THE HONG KONG ECONOMY, THE SPOKESMAN SAID THERE WERE A NUMBER OF SIGNS THAT THE ECONOMY WAS ALREADY RECOVERING FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE WORLD RECESSION.

THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN THE FIRST QUARTER SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH RATE OF 6 PER CENT IN MONEY TERMS AND 2 PER CENT IN REAL TERMS. THIS WAS A MARKED IMPROVEMENT ON THE FALLS IN REAL TERMS RECORDED IN EACH OF THE FOUR QUARTERS OF 1982.

PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY WAS AN INCREASE OF 19 PER CENT IN MONEY TERMS, 9 PER CENT IN REAL TERMS, IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE US.

ONE EFFECT OF THE RECOVERY IN THE GROWTH RATES OF EXPORTS WAS THAT THE TRADE GAP, THE PROPORTION OF IMPORTS OF GOODS NOT COVERED BY EXPORTS, HAD NARROWED FROM OVER 19 PER CENT IN THE PERIOD JANUARY TO APRIL 1982 TO UNDER 15 PER CENT IN THE SAME PERIOD THIS YEAR, THE APRIL FIGURES INDICATED THAT THIS

IMPROVEMENT WAS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED.

AS REGARDS THE MONTHS TO COME, REPORTS FROM MANUFACTURERS INDICATED AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORDER BOOKS AND INCREASED CONFIDENCE ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS, AS REPORTS ON THE ECONOMIES OF HONG KONG'S MAJOR MARKETS SUPPORT THE VIEW THAT THE WORLD ECONOMY IS MAKING A SLOW BUT STEADY RECOVERY FROM THE RECESSION, THIS CONFIDENCE SEEMED TO BE WELL FOUNDED.

THE SPOKESMAN ACCEPTED THAT THE LATEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, OF 5.1 PER CENT, WAS HIGHER THAN WAS DESIRABLE AND INDICATED THAT THE RECOVERY IN THE ECONOMY HAD YET TO FEED THROUGH TO THE LABOUR MARKET. HE CAUTIONED, HOWEVER, AGAINST READING TOO MUCH INTO THE RECENT RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT AS THE CHANGES IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NORMALLY LAGGED BEHIND CHANGES IN OTHER ASPECTS OF THE ECONOMY, THE CURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE ECONOMY IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED BY AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, THOUGH PROBABLY NOT IMMEDIATELY. NEVERTHELESS, HE POINTED OUT. THERE ARE REPORTS THAT IN SOME SECTORS OF INDUSTRY IN SOME LOCATIONS INCREASED ORDERS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO RESULT IN FACTORY OWNERS HAVING DIFFICULTY IN OBTAINING THE WORKERS THEY WANT.

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