XN000022-1983-02-23 — Page 3

WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 1983

FS FORECASTS BETTER EXPORT PERFORMANCE AND GDP GROWTH

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HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS WILL GROW BY FIVE PER CENT THIS YEAR, AGAINST AN ESTIMATED GROWTH RATE OF MINUS THREE PER CENT IN 1982, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, THE HON JOHN BREMRIDGE, FORECAST IN HIS BUDGET SPEECH TODAY.

BUT MOST OF THE RECOVERY IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, GIVEN THAT RETAINED IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES HAVE NOT YET SHOWN CLEAR SIGNS OF PICKING UP, MR BREMRIDGE SAID.

THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSERVATIVE OUTLOOK ON EXPORT PERFORMANCE EXPRESSED BY THE CROSS-SECTION OF MANUFACTURERS WHO TOOK PART IN THE SURVEY OF BUSINESS PROSPECTS CONDUCTED BY THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT AT THE END OF LAST YEAR, HE POINTED OUT.

RE-EXPORTS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND BY 12 PER CENT, WHILE THERE WAS NO GROWTH IN 1982, MR BREMRIDGE SAID.

THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF HONG KONG'S TOTAL EXPORTS OF GOODS WILL BE SEVEN PER CENT, COMPARED WITH MINUS TWO PER CENT IN 1982.

GOING OVER INDIVIDUAL MARKETS, MR BREMRIDGE FORECAST THAT DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR 38 PER CENT OF HONG KONG'S TOTAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY VALUE IN 1982, WOULD GROW BY FIVE PER CENT, AS AGAINST A ONE PER CENT DECLINE

IN 1982.

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WHILE THIS GROWTH RATE IS LOW BY HISTORICAL STANDARDS, MIGHT WELL BE EXCEEDED IF THE U.S. ECONOMY RECOVERS SOONER THAN ASSUMED, HE ADDED.

PRESENTLY, THE U.S. ECONOMY IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER GRADUALLY IN 1983, WITH MORE RAPID GROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.

AS THE GNP IN BRITAIN IS EXPECTED TO GROW BY ONE PER CENT IN 1983, AFTER HAVING REMAINED RELATIVELY STAGNANT IN 1982, DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THIS MARKET ARE FORECAST TO GROW BY FIVE PER CENT, AFTER DECLINING BY 10 PER CENT IN 1982, MR BREMRIDGE SAID.

LAST YEAR, THE UK TOOK UP NINE PER CENT OF HONG KONG'S TOTAL DOMESTIC EXPORTS BY VALUE.

HE ADDED, HOWEVER, THAT SHOULD THE HONG KONG DOLLAR CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY AGAINST THE STERLING THIS YEAR, THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE MIGHT NOT BE ACHIEVED.

DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, WHICH ACCOUNTED FOR EIGHT PER CENT OF HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS, WAS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM A FOUR PER CENT DECLINE LAST YEAR TO A FOUR PER CENT GROWTH RATE THIS YEAR.

/MR BREMRIDGE