XN000022-1983-02-04 — Page 3

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FRIDAY, FEBRUARY

4,

1983

TRADE CURBS COULD BECOME POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY: DORWARD

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THE LONG HISTORY OF TEXTILE RESTRICTIONS SHOWS THAT GOOD INTENTIONS COULD DETERIORATE WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME INTO POLITICAL EXPEDIENCY, THE SECRETARY FOR TRADE AND INDUSTRY, MR BILL DORWARD, SAID TODAY (FRIDAY).

+WE MUST RECOGNISE AT THE SAME TIME, HOWEVER, THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A CERTAIN COUNTRY IN WESTERN EUROPE WHICH SHALL

NOT NAME →→ BUT WHOSE BRANDY SALES HAVE RECENTLY DECLINED IN RONG KÔNG OUTSIDE THE FIELD OF TEXTILES HONG KONG HAS SO FAR BEEN TREATED REASONABLY FAIRLY, MR DORWARD SAID, ADDRESSING THE LUNCHEON MEETING OF THE ROTARY CLUB OF KOWLOON NORTH.

BUT HE ADDED THAT THE RISK OF A DETERIORATION WAS PROBABLY HIGHER THAN IT HAD BEEN AT ANY TIME IN THE PAST FIFTY YEARS.

ANALYSING THE CAUSES OF PROTECTIONISM. MR DORWARD QUOTED A RECENT REVIEW IN THE ECONOMIST UNDER THE TITLE IS FREE TRADE DEAD?+ WHICH SAID: +PROTECTIONISM DOES NOT HAVE A LIFE OF ITS OWN. IT IS IMPOSED BY GOVERNMENTS, AND CAN BE RESISTED AND REVERSED BY THEM. GOVERNMENTS, IN TURN, DO NOT BECOME PROTECTIONIST OUT OF MALICE OR SOME UNACCOUNTABLE FAILURE TO COMPREHEND THE SIMPLE THEORY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE. THEY RESPOND TO PRESSURE, AND PRESSURE GROUPS HAVE BECOME ONE OF THE INDUSTRIAL WORLD'S GROWTH INDUSTRIES.

+THEY GROW, WHAT IS MORE, COUNTER-CYCLICALLY. WHEN ECONOMIES STAGNATE AND UNEMPLOYMENT RISES, LOBBYISTS FLOURISH -- AND POLITICIANS LISTEN. IF A THOUSAND JOBS ARE THREATENED IN A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT'S MARGINAL CONSTITUENCY IN BRITAIN OR A CONGRESSMAN'S MARGINAL DISTRICT IN THE UNITED STATES, THE PROTECTIONIST DRUM BEATS OUT ITS MESSAGE: STOP IMPORTS FROM JAPAN OR SPAIN OR BRAZIL, THEIR WORKERS CAN'T VOTE IN OUR NEXT ELECTION. POLITICIANS USUALLY TRY TO TRANSLATE THIS MESSAGE INTO WEASEL-WORDED PHRASES, BUT THEIR PURPOSE IS THE SAME AS THE CRUDEST PROTECTIONISM.+

MR DORWARD SAID A GOVERNMENT FACED WITH PRESSURE TO 60 PROTECTIONIST WAS LIKE A DRIVER SUDDENLY HITTING A CORNER. +IF HE TAKES HIS FOOT OFF THE ACCELERATOR AND PERHAPS TOUCHES THE BRAKE OR CLUTCH, THE CORNER IS LIKELY TO BE A HAIR RAISING, DANGEROUS AND UNCONTROLLED ADVENTURE WHERE NOT ONLY HE BUT ALL OTHER ROAD USERS ARE AT RISK.

+IF HE KEEPS HIS NERVE. HOWEVER, HE WILL STEER THROUGH THE CORNER ON A TRUE LINE AND COME OUT SAFELY ON THE OTHER SIDE,+ HE SAID.

THOUGH THE