XN000022-1983-01-05 — Page 2

WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 5, 1983

TERTIARY SERVICES MAY BE TAKING UP EMPLOYMENT SLACK

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THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINED STEADY AT ABOUT 3.4 PER CENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1982 BUT PROBABLY INCREASED TO AROUND FOUR PER CENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, THE SECRETARY FOR ECONOMIC SERVICES, THE HON PIERS JACOBS, SAID IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TODAY.

MR JACOBS REPORTED THAT DURING THE YEAR UNDEREMPLOYMENT ALSO INCREASED AND A FAIRLY ACCURATE FIGURE WOULD SOON BE AVAILABLE FROM NEW QUESTIONS INCLUDED IN THE GENERAL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY.

HE WAS REPLYING TO THE HON CHEUNG YAN-LUNG, WHO HAD ASKED ABOUT THE ANTICIPATED NUMBER OF FACTORY CLOSURES AND THE LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT IN THE PERIOD UP TO THE LUNAR NEW YEAR, +IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ECONOMY.+

MR JACOBS POINTED TO TWO INDICATORS RELEVANT TO MR CHEUNG'S QUESTION 1

*

IN OCTOBER, WHICH IS THE LAST MONTH FOR WHICH COMPLETE STATISTICS ARE AVAILABLE, ORDERS IN HAND IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR COVERED AN AVERAGE OF 3.7 MONTHS, DOWN FROM 4.1 MONTHS IN OCTOBER 1981.

IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1982, RETAINED IMPORTS OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURES DECLINED BY FIVE PER CENT IN REAL TERMS FROM THE SAME PERIOD IN 1981.

+TAKING THESE FIGURES TOGETHER, THERE IS THE SUGGESTION OF LESS EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES OR SHORTER WORKING HOURS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS,

+BUT TO ATTEMPT TO GO FURTHER IN RELATING THESE FIGURES TO UNEMPLOYMENT WOULD BE TO ENTER INTO THE FIELD OF SPECULATION, + MR JACOBS SAID.

HE ADDED THAT THIS WAS PARTICULARLY SO BECAUSE OF OTHER FACTORS THAT MUST BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT, AMONG THEM THE TREND OF INCREASING EMPLOYMENT IN THE TERTIARY SERVICES SECTORS WHICH WAS NOTICEABLE LAST YEAR.

*IT APPEARS THAT SOME WORKERS WHO LOST THEIR JOBS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR, WERE ABLE TO FIND ALTERNATIVE EMPLOYMENT IN THE TERTIARY SERVICES SECTORS, SUCH AS THE WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADES, AND RESTAURANTS AND HOTELS,+ MR JACOBS SAID.