XN000022-1982-11-26 — Page 2

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 1982

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DECLINE SEEN IN AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE

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THE POPULATION OF HONG KONG WILL INCREASE TO 6.2 MILLION IN 1991 AND TO 6.7 MILLION IN 1996, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, MR JOHN BREMRIDGE, SAID AT THE HONG KONG UNIVERSITY MANAGEMENT ALUMNI SOCIETY THIS (FRIDAY) EVENING.

MR BREMRIDGE BASED THESE ESTIMATES ON PAST TRENDS OF DECLINING FERTILITY AND MORTALITY AND ON AN ASSUMED NET IMMIGRATION OF 44 000 A YEAR.

+ IF WE COULD ASSUME ZERO NET IMMIGRATION, WHICH MUST BE A REASONABLE AIM, THE FIGURES WOULD BECOME 5.8 MILLION IN 1991 AND 6 MILLION IN 1996, + HE SAID.

DUE TO DECLINING FERTILITY AND RISING PROSPERITY, THE AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE FELL FROM 4.5 IN 1971 TO 3.9 LAST YEAR AND IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE FURTHER TO 3.3 IN 1991 AND 3.1 IN 1996, HE SAID.

MR BREMRIDGE ADDED THAT THERE WERE OBVIOUS IMPLICATIONS HERE FOR HOUSING DEMAND WHICH HE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNABATED FOR MANY YEARS.

BETWEEN 1971 AND 1981, LIFE EXPECTANCY FOR MEN INCREASED BY FIVE YEARS FROM 67.4 TO 72.4 AND FOR WOMEN BY 3.1 YEARS FROM 75 TO 78.1, HE REPORTED.

THESE FIGURES WERE COMPARABLE WITH THOSE OF THE MOST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES IN THE WORLD, HE POINTED OUT.

THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF CHILDREN BORN PER WOMAN FELL DRAMATICALLY FROM 5.17 IN 1961 TO 1.97 LAST YEAR AND FURTHER DECLINES MIGHT BE EXPECTED, HE SAID.

TODAY, THE CRUDE BIRTH RATE STANDS AT 17 PER THOUSAND AND THE CRUDE DEATH RATE AT FIVE PER THOUSAND.

INFANT MORTALITY

DEFINED AS DEATHS DURING THE FIRST YEAR OF LIFE - FELL FROM 18 PER THOUSAND IN 1971 TO 10 PER THOUSAND IN 1981, WHICH IS LOWER THAN THOSE OF BRITAIN, THE UNITED STATES AND SINGAPORE BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN JAPAN'S EIGHT PER THOUSAND, MR BREMRIDGE SAID,

ALTHOUGH A QUARTER OF HONG KONG'S POPULATION ARE BELOW 15 YEARS OLD, THE MEAN AGE ROSE FROM 27.4 YEARS IN 1971 TO 30.3 YEARS

IN 1981, HE SAID.

OF SIGNIFICANCE TO FUTURE SOCIAL DEMANDS, THE PERCENTAGE PEOPLE OVER 65 YEARS OLD IS NOTICEABLY INCREASING,

MR BREMRIDGE POINTED OUT.

THE FIGURE WAS UP FROM 4.5 PER CENT IN 1971 TO 6.6 PER CENT IN 1981 AND IS EXPECTED TO RISE FURTHER TO 8.7 PER CENT IN 1991 AND TO 9.6 PER CENT IN 1996, HE ADDED.

THE IMPLICATIONS