XN000022-1982-02-15 — Page 4

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 15, 1982

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IN THE WESTERN NEW TERRITORIES. THERE ARE PLANS TO PROVIDE TUEN MUN NEW TOWN WITH A NEW AND MODERN TRAMWAY OR LIGHT RAIL TRANSIT SYSTEM, TOGETHER WITH A LINK TO THE NEARBY SMALLER NEW TOWN OF YUEN LÔNG. THE OPERATOR WILL BE ALLOWED TO RUN BUSES BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS INSTALLED AND THE BUSES WILL ASSUME A COMPLEMENTARY ROLE AFTER IT OPENS.

THE FERRIES, WHICH CARRY SOME HALF A MILLION PASSENGERS A DAY, WILL BE ENCOURAGED TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE THEIR SERVICES WHEREVER POSSIBLE.

AS REGARDS FRANCHISED BUSES AND PUBLIC LIGHT BUSES, WITH INCREASING POPULATION AND GROWING INCOMES, THE PREDICTION IS THAT BY THE LATE 1980S AND EARLY 1990S, EVEN IF THE NEW OFF-ROAD MODES ARE CARRYING OVER THREE MILLION PASSENGERS A DAY, THEY WILL PROBABLY STILL NEED TO TRANSPORT AT LEAST THE FIVE MILLION PASSENGERS (FRANCHISED BUSES ABOUT 3.35 MILLION, PLB'S 1.5 MILLION) THEY CARRY TODAY.

+SO IT WILL STILL BE NECESSARY TO ENSURE THAT NOT ONLY ARE SUFFICIENT VEHICLES AVAILABLE TO MEET THE TASK, BUT ALSO THAT THEY ARE ABLE TO MOVE QUICKLY ENOUGH ON THE ROADS TO DO THEIR JOB WITH REASONABLE EFFICIENCY. THE PROBLEM OF INCREASING ROAD CONGESTION, THEREFORE, REMAINS THE MOST URGENT PROBLEM FOR OUR TRANSPORT PLANNERS, + MR SCOTT SAID.

RESTRAINTS

THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES IN HONG KONG, AT MORE THAN 300 000 VEHICLES OR 285 PER KILOMETRES OF ROAD, IS MORE THAN ANY OTHER TERRITORY IN THE WORLD INCLUDING EVEN MONACO AT ABOUT 200 VEHICLES PER KILOMETRE. IN RECENT YEARS, TOTAL VEHICLES NUMBERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING BY ABOUT 12 PER CENT A YEAR AND PRIVATE CARS AND TAXIS BY OVER 14 PER CENT.

+ALREADY, DESPITE ALL EFFORTS AT MANAGEMENT, PARTS OF THE ROAD SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE VITAL CROSS-HARBOUR LINK, FACE VERY SEVERE TRAFFIC CONGESTION FOR A CONSIDERABLE PART OF THE DAY, MR SCOTT SAID.

IF VEHICLE NUMBERS AND VEHICLE USAGE CONTINUE TO RISE AT ANYTHING NEAR THE CURRENT RATE, THE SITUATION WILL INEVITABLY WORSEN - AND IN SOME AREAS MAY APPROACH PERIODIC TOTAL CONGESTION.

THE PROBLEM WAS DEEPLY CONSIDERED BY THE COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORT STUDY WHICH ESTIMATED THAT WITH NO FURTHER RESTRAINTS, THERE WOULD BE 400 000 PRIVATE CARS IN HONG KONG BY 1991, BUT ASSUMING A VERY CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN LICENCE FEES AND OTHER MEASURES, THIS FIGURE COULD BE KEPT DOWN TO SOME 280 000 CARS.

HOWEVER, BECAUSE OF MORE RAPID GROWTH IN INCOMES IN RECENT YEARS THAN THAT ASSUMED IN THE STUDY, THE NUMBERS OF PRIVATE CARS ARE ALREADY ABOVE THE UNRESTRAINED GROWTH LINE AND THE NUMBER OF TAX IS LICENSED AND THE NUMBERS OF GOODS VEHICLES ARE HIGHER THAN WERE ASSUMED, WHILE THE ACTUAL ROAD CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME HAS NOT FOLLOWED THE ASSUMPTIONS.

HILE THERE