XN000022-1981-11-22 — Page 7

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 1981

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FIRMS IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR REPORTED IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE 3RD QUARTER BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT EXPECTED BY THEM IN THE PREVIOUS SURVEY DONE IN JULY, EXPECTATION FOR THE 4TH QUARTER POINTS TO SOME FURTHER SMALL IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS WHICH CONSTRASTS WITH STRONG ANTICIPATION FOR IMPROVEMENT EXPRESSED AT THE SAME TIME LAST YEAR.

IMPROVEMENTS IN BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE 3RD QUARTER WERE REPORTED BY FIRMS IN THE OTHER SERVICES' SECTOR AND THE 'RESTAURANTS' BUSINESS. A CONTINUED FAVOURABLE TREND OF BUSINESS WAS FORESEEN BY THESE FIRMS IN THE 4TH QUARTER.

RESPONDING FIRMS IN THE WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE' AND 'HOTELS' SERVICE EXPERIENCED A DECLINE IN BUSINESS IN TH 3RD QUARTER BUT THEY EXPECT A BUSINESS RECOVERY IN THE 4TH QUARTER. THE DETERIORATION IN BUSINESS OF FIRMS IN THE WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE' SECTOR DURING THE 3RD QUARTER WAS CONTRARY TO EXPECTATIONS EXPRESSED BY RESPONDENTS IN THE PREVIOUS SURVEY DONE IN JULY.

THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT STATED THAT THE SURVEY DATA, OBTAINED WITH A MINIMUM TIME LAG, WAS BASICALLY INTENDED TO PROVIDE ONE SOURCE OF REFERENCE FOR MAKING A QUICK ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION IN HONG KONG.

APART FROM A LIMITED NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REQUIRING ANSWERS IN QUANTITATIVE TERMS, FIRMS WERE ASKED TO COMPARE THE QUARTER JUST PAST WITH THE PREVIOUS QUARTER AND SIMILARLY FOR THE FORTHCOMING ONE, AND ONLY HAD TO INDICATE WHETHER, IN THEIR OPINION, A CERTAIN VARIABLE WAS "UP', 'SAME' OR 'DOWN

BALANCE OF OPINIONS OF RESPONDENTS WERE TABULATED AND ANALYSED, AND WHERE APPROPRIATE THEY WERE INTERPRETED ALONG WITH RESULTS OBTAINED IN EARLIER SURVEYS.

THE DEPARTMENT CAUTIONED THAT IN A SURVEY OF THIS NATURE, CONSIDERABLE RESERVATIONS MUST BE MADE IN THE INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS AS IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH PRECISELY THE EXTENT TO WHICH RESPONDENTS' PERCEPTION OF THE PAST AND THE FUTURE ACCORDS WITH THE UNDERLYING TRENDS.

COPIES OF THE REPORT, CONTAINING AN ANALYSIS AND STATISTICAL TABLES ON VARIOUS ECONOMIC VARIABLES, HAVE BEEN DISTRIBUTED TO FIRMS TAKING PART IN THE SURVEY AND TO OTHER BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS. MEMBERS OF PUBLIC MAY OBTAIN COPIES FROM GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS CENTRE, GENERAL POST OFFICE BUILDING, AT $3 PER COPY.