XN000022-1980-09-23 — Page 4

TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 23,1980

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COMMENTING ON THE FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY, A GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN SAID THAT IN SIMILAR SURVEYS CONDUCTED, MANUFACTURERS HAD ALWAYS BEEN OVERTLY CONSERVATIVE IN FORMULATING THEIR VIEWS ABOUT BUSINESS PROSPECTS. FOR EXAMPLE, AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, MANUFACTURERS PREDICTED THAT THE VOLUME OF EXPORT ORDERS IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR WOULD BE FIVE PER CENT MORE THAN THAT IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1979. IN THE EVENT, HONG KONG'S DOMESTIC EXPORTS ACHIEVED A GROWTH RATE, IN REAL TERMS, OF 18 PER CENT. THE SPOKESMAN STRESSED THEREFORE THAT FINDINGS FROM THE SURVEY HAD TO BE INTERPRETED WITH GREAT CARE.

NEVERTHELESS, HE SAID THAT THE SOMEWHAT PESSIMISTIC VIEWS EXPRESSED BY MANUFACTURERS CONCERNING EXPORT ORDERS, PARTICULARLY THOSE FROM HONG KONG'S MAJOR MARKETS AND THOSE FOR TEXTILES AND CLOTHING, COULD BE TAKEN AS AN INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE SLOW DOWN IN THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR.

THIS, HE SAID, WAS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY PUT THE REVISED FORECAST OF THE GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS FOR THE YEAR AT 14 PER CENT, WHEN THE ACHIEVED GROWTH RATE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR WAS 18 PER CENT.

THE SPOKESMAN ADDED THAT IN CONTRAST TO THEIR OWN VIEWS ABOUT EXPORT ORDERS, MANUFACTURERS EXPECTED THEIR PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY IN TERMS OF MACHINERY AND FACTORY SPACE WOULD INCREASE BY SIX PER CENT THIS YEAR, ALBEIT WITH A MARGINALLY LOWER UTILIZATION RATE, AND THAT EMPLOYMENT IN MANUFACTURING WOULD REMAIN STABLE.

MANUFACTURERS COVERED BY THE SURVEY EXPECTED THE PRICES OF THEIR PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT TO INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE OF SIX PER CENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF 1980 COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 1979, WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE IR EXPECTATION OF A CORRESPONDING INCREASE OF SEVEN PER CENT FOR THE PRICES OF MATERIAL INPUTS AND 10 PER CENT FOR WAGES PAID TO OPERATIVES.

IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR, IT WAS ENVISAGED THE PRICES OF BUILDING MATERIALS WOULD INCREASE BY AN AVERAGE OF EIGHT PER CENT, WAGES BY 11 PER CENT, AND EMPLOYMENT BY FIVE PER CENT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF 1979.

THE CONTRACTORS ALSO EXPECTED THEIR PLANT CAPACITY TO EXPAND BY ABOUT EIGHT PER CENT DURING 1980.

A REPORT ON THE SURVEY IS AVAILABLE AT $2 PER COPY AT THE GOVERNMENT PUBLICATIONS CENTRE, GENERAL POST OFFICE, HONG KONG. ENQUIRIES ON THE SURVEY RESULTS MAY BE MADE TO THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION STATISTICS SECTION OF THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT AT 5-274203.