XN000022-1980-03-13 — Page 2

THURSDAY, MARCH 13, 1980

SURVEY ON ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR 1980

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ORDERS IN MANUFACTURING ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY FIVE PER CENT IN QUANTITY TERMS FOR 1980, ACCORDING TO A SAMPLE ECONOMIC SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IN JANUARY THIS YEAR.

THE OUTLOOK REPRESENTS THE VIEWS OF MANAGEMENTS IN 557 SELECTED ESTABLISHMENTS EACH ENGAGING 100 OR MORE PERSONS IN TEN MAJOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES.

A SPOKESMAN OF THE DEPARTMENT SAID SIMILAR SURVEYS WERE CONDUCTED IN THE PRECEDING YEARS SO AS TO GATHER MANUFACTURERS' OPINIONS ON BUSINESS OUTLOOK FOR THE YEAR AHEAD.

THE SUBJECTS COVERED WERE EXPECTED VOLUME OF ORDERS, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, MATERIAL AND OUTPUT PRICES, CAPACITY UTILISATION, AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT.

THE SPOKESMAN SAID: +SINCE THE RESPONSES OBTAINED FROM OPINION QUESTIONS OF THIS NATURE DEPEND VERY MUCH ON MANUFACTURERS' ABILITY TO PREDICT FUTURE PROSPECTS, AND ON THE DIVERGENT BACKGROUND UPON WHICH THEY MAKE SUCH PREDICTIONS, THE SURVEY FINDINGS SHOULD THEREFORE BE INTERPRETED NOT IN ISOLATION, BUT AGAINST THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE LOCAL ECONOMY.+

HE SAID WHEREAS THE SURVEY CONSTITUTED ONE OF THE MANY USEFUL SOURCES OF INFORMATION FROM WHICH THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY DERIVED HIS LATEST ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION, IT WAS ALSO KNOWN TO BE ONE OF THE MORE CONSERVATIVE IN ITS PREDICTIONS.

PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATED THAT THE SURVEY RESULTS WERE OFTEN ON THE LOW SIDE WHEN MATCHED WITH THE ACTUAL PERFORMANCE CONCLUDED BY THE CLOSE OF THE YEAR, THE SPOKESMAN ADDED.

THE MANUFACTURERS SURVEYED EXPECTED THAT THEIR VOLUME OF ORDERS FROM THE UNITED STATES, FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM WOULD INCREASE BY SIX PER CENT, FIVE PER CENT AND THREE PER CENT RESPECTIVELY. THE GROWTH IN ORDERS FROM ALL OTHER OVERSEAS MARKETS COULD BE AROUND SIX PER CENT AND FROM THE LOCAL MARKET, AROUND FIVE PER CENT.

MANUFACTURERS OF ELECTRONICS, AND WATCHES AND CLOCKS GENERALLY MAINTAINED A MORE OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK THAN THOSE OF TEXTILES AND CLOTHING. THE EXPECTED GROWTH IN ORDERS WAS 10 PER CENT TO 11 PER CENT FOR ELECTRONICS AND WATCHES BUT ONLY THREE PER CENT FOR TEXTILES AND CLOTHING. THE SURVEY ALSO REVEALED A PROBABLE INCREASE OF FIVE PER CENT TO SEVEN PER CENT IN THE VOLUME OF ORDERS FOR FOOD, PRINTING, PLASTICS, METAL PRODUCTS AND ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES INDUSTRIES.

EMPLOYMENT IN THE FACTORIES SURVEYED COULD INCREASE BY FIVE PER CENT OVER THE LEVEL OF 1979. WAGES COULD, HOWEVER, BE 12 PER CENT HIGHER. THE SAME RATE OF INCREASE AS WAGES WAS EXPECTED FOR THE PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURED INPUTS, BUT LESS SO, AT NINE PER CENT, FOR THE PRICES OF FINISHED PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT.

/MACHINERY CAPACITY