XN000022-1979-11-26 — Page 2

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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26, 1979

PROVISIONAL TRADE FIGURES FOR OCTOBER

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THE VALUE OF HONG KONG'S TOTAL EXPORTS FOR LAST MONTH (OCTOBER) WAS $7 118 MILLION, MADE UP OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS OF $5 322 MILLION AND RE-EXPORTS OF $1 796 MILLION, ACCORDING TO PROVISIONAL TRADE FIGURES RELEASED BY THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT TODAY (MONDAY),

WITH IMPORTS AT $8 299 MILLION, THE VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT FOR OCTOBER WAS $1 181 MILLION,

FOR THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, TOTAL EXPORTS WERE VALUED AT $61 134 MILLION AND IMPORTS AT $69 318 MILLION, GIVING A TOTAL VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT OF $8 184 MILLION.

COMPARED WITH THE SAME MONTH LAST YEAR, THE VALUE OF LAST MONTH'S TOTAL EXPORTS INCREASED BY 41 PER CENT, DOMESTIC EXPORTS UP BY 40 PER CENT, RE-EXPORTS BY 45 PER CENT AND IMPORTS BY 48 PER CENT.

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COMMENTING ON THESE FIGURES, A GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN SAID THE PEAK SEASON FOR IMPORTS USUALLY OCCURRED IN THE LAST QUARTER OF THE YEAR IN PREPARATION FOR THE INCREASED RETAIL SALES AROUND THE CHRISTMAS SEASON AND AS MANUFACTURERS BOUGHT IN RAW MATERIALS FOR THEIR SPRING ORDERS.

+SO, INCREASED MONTHLY VISIBLE TRADE DEFICITS ARE NORMAL AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, BUT THE INCREASE THIS YEAR SEEMS TO HAVE STARTED SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN IT DID LAST YEAR, HE SAID.

HE SAID THAT, ON THE BASIS OF THE FIRST TEN MONTHS TAKEN TOGETHER, THE TRENDS EMERGING FOR THIS YEAR AS A WHOLE CONTINUED TO BE ENCOURAGING ON TWO COUNTS,

FIRSTLY, THE GROWTH RATE OF TOTAL EXPORTS WAS FASTER THAN THAT OF IMPORTS. THE VALUE OF TOTAL EXPORTS WAS, IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, 42 PER CENT HIGHER THAN IN THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD LAST YEAR, COMPARED WITH 39 PER CENT FOR THE VALUE OF IMPORTS.

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SECONDLY, THE SIGNIFICANT FIGURE WAS NOT THE VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT AS SUCH BUT THE EXTENT TO WHICH IMPORTS WERE NOT BEING PAID FOR BY EXPORTS, THE SO-CALLED VISIBLE TRADE GAP. THE GAP NARROWED FROM 13.2 PER CENT IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 1978 TO 11.8 PER CENT IN THE SAME PERIOD THIS YEAR.

THE SPOKESMAN POINTED OUT THAT THE TRADE FIGURES FOR THE YEAR TO DATE WERE CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECASTS FOR THE YEAR, INDICATING THAT THE ECONOMY WAS STILL ON THE COURSE PREDICTED BY THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY.

HE SAID DETAILED FIGURES FOR OCTOBER WERE NOT YET AVAILABLE, BUT THOSE UP TO SEPTEMBER SHOWED THAT THE GROWTH RATE OF IMPORTS OF CONSUMER GOODS HAD SLOWED DOWN, INDICATING THAT DOMESTIC DEMAND WAS BEING DAMPENED DOWN,

/+IN FACT