XN000022-1979-09-26 — Page 2

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WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 1979

MID-YEAR SURVEY OF HK ECONOMIC PROSPECTS 1979

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THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT TODAY (WEDNESDAY) RELEASED THE RESULTS OF A SURVEY OF HONG KONG'S ECONOMIC PROSPECTS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 1979.

THE SURVEY, CONDUCTED IN JUNE THIS YEAR, COVERED 502 ESTABLISHMENTS EACH EMPLOYING 100 PEOPLE OR MORE IN 10 MAJOR MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND 53 LARGEST CONTRACTORS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY.

OPINIONS WERE GATHERED ON THE SUBJECTS OF MARKET DEMAND, EMPLOYMENT, WAGES, MATERIAL PRICES, CAPACITY UTILISATION AND CAPITAL INVESTMENT.

A SPOKESMAN FOR THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT SAID THE SURVEY WAS A FOLLOW-UP TO THE ONE CONDUCTED IN JANUARY THIS YEAR FOR THE PURPOSE OF ASSESSING MANUFACTURING AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

+IT CONSTITUTED ONE OF THE MANY SOURCES OF INFORMATION SUPPORTING THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY'S LATEST ASSESSMENT OF THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN HONG KONG,+ THE SPOKESMAN SAID.

+SINCE THE SURVEY WAS CONFINED TO CHANGES BETWEEN THE SECOND HALF BUT NOT THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR AND THE LAST, IT WAS NOT DESIGNED TO ELICIT YEAR-ON-YEAR CHANGES LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1978 AND 1979, HE ADDED.

THE SPOKESMAN, HOWEVER, CAUTIONED THAT IN A SURVEY OF THIS KIND, THE ACCURACY OF THE RESULTS DEPENDED VERY MUCH ON THE ABILITY OF THE RESPONDENTS TO PREDICT THE ECONOMIC TREND OF THE NEAR FUTURE.

+EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT RESPONDENTS TEND TO BE CONSERVATIVE ABOUT THEIR EXPECTATIONS. THE CONSENSUS THUS OBTAINED SHOULD THEREFORE BE INTERPRETED NOT IN ISOLATION, BUT AGAINST THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE HONG KONG ECONOMY, HE ADDED.

AS FAR AS THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IS CONCERNED, THE SURVEY SHOWED THAT THE DEMAND FOR ITS PRODUCTS AND SERVICES WOULD INCREASE BY FIVE PER CENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF 1979 OVER THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD OF 1978. THIS EXPECTED INCREASE HAS BEEN RECKONED IN TERMS OF ACTUAL QUANTITIES WITH THE EFFECT OF PRICE INCREASES DISCOUNTED.

PRODUCTS SOLD AND INDUSTRIAL SERVICES PERFORMED BY THE SURVEYED MANUFACTURERS TO OVERSEAS CUSTOMERS WERE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY FIVE PER CENT, WHILE SALES TO THE LOCAL MARKET WOULD PROBABLY INCREASE LESS, BY THREE PER CENT BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS.

THE EXPORTS.....