XN000022-1978-11-29 — Page 3

1

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 29, 1978

IMPLICATIONS OF LEGAL IMMIGRANTS

******

THE CHIEF SECRETARY, THE HON, JACK CATER SAID TODAY (WEDNESDAY), THAT IF THE LEGAL IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA WERE TO CONTINUE AT THE RATE EXPERIENCED IN THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, THERE WOULD BE AN INCREASE OF 400,000 PEOPLE ON TOP OF THE PRESENT MEDIUM POPULATION PROJECTION OF 5.2 MILLION BY 1986.

IN REPLY TO A QUESTION FROM THE HON. LYDIA DUNN IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, MR. CATER SAID THE ADDITIONAL INCREASE OF 400,000 IMMIGRANTS WAS NOT THAT FAR SHORT OF THE PRESENT POPULATION OF TSUEN WAN.

HE ALSO POINTED OUT THAT IN THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF THIS YEAR, A TOTAL OF 72,429 LEGAL IMMIGRANTS ENTERED HONG KONG, INCLUDING 50,249 FROM CHINA.

CORRESPONDING FIGURES FOR THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF THE THREE PREVIOUS YEARS WERE 1975 — 39,142 (21,883_FROM_CHINA); 1976 37,563 (16,716 FROM CHINA)- AND 1977 -- 42,718 (20,972 FROM CHINA).

MR. CATER SAID IT WAS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER A NEW TREND IN LEGAL IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA WAS BEING ESTABLISHED, AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE INCREASE FOR HEALTH, EDUCATION AND HOUSING PROGRAMMES WERE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BECAUSE, +WE DO NOT KNOW THE AGE AND SEX DISTRIBUTION OF THIS HOPEFULLY HYPOTHETICAL INCREASE IN OUR POPULATION.+

HOWEVER, HE SAID, TO ALLOW ON THIS BASIS FOR AN INCREASE OF 400,000 IN POPULATION WOULD INVOLVE ABOUT 2,400 BEDS OR TWO HOSPITALS THE SIZE OF THE PRINCESS MARGARET HOSPITAL.

ON THE IMPLICATIONS FOR EDUCATION PROGRAMME, HE SAID THEY OVIOUSLY DEPENDED ON THE NUMBER OF IMMIGRANTS OF SCHOOL AGE ON ARRIVAL HERE AND ON HOW QUICKLY THE IMMIGRANTS, AS A WHOLE, STARTED PRODUCING CHILDREN.

+OUR SURPLUS OF PRIMARY PLACES SHOULD THEORETICALLY ENABLE US TO MEET THE EXTRA DEMAND.

AT THE SECONDARY LEVEL UP TO THE AGE OF 15, MR. CATER SAID THERE WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BE A NEED FOR MORE PLACES AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED IMMIGRATION.

ON IMPLICATIONS FOR HOUSING, MR. CATER SAID IF THE IMMIGRANTS HAVE THE TYPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HONG KONG POPULATION ON AGE AND FAMILY CHARATERISTICS AND ON THE PROPORTION ELIGIBLE FOR PUBLIC HOUSING WE ESTIMATE 60,000 ADDITIONAL FLATS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR THEM BY 1986+.

*ON THE BASIS OF THE HOUSING AUTHORITY'S 1979/80 RATE OF 40,000 NEW FLATS A YEAR, THIS IS A FURTHER ONE-AND-A-HALF YEARS' PRODUCTION.+

Am. CAT