XN000022-1978-11-20 — Page 7

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MONDAY, NOVEMBER 20, 1978

QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY REPORT

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HONG KONG'S ECONOMY EXPERIENCED AN IMPROVED THIRD QUARTER THIS YEAR OVER THE SECOND QUARTER AND FURTHER ADVANCEMENT IN THE COMING QUARTER IS EXPECTED, A QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT IN OCTOBER REVEALED.

THE SURVEY SUGGESTS THAT IN THE MANUFACTURING DIVISION. ALL INDUSTRIES REPORTED BETTER PERFORMANCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER, PARTICULARLY IN FOOD, BEVERAGE, TOBACCO', 'FABRICATED METAL PRODUCTS AND WATCHES AND CLOCKS SECTORS.

THE OVERALL VIEW IN THE MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IS THAT THE FOURTH QUARTER WILL BRING FURTHER ADVANCES. WATCHES AND CLOCKS' IS ESPECIALLY CONFIDENT WHILE THERE MAY BE A MARGINAL DECLINE IN 'PLASTICS'.

AS REGARDS THE NON-MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, NEARLY ALL SECTORS REPORTED ADVANCES IN THE THIRD QUARTER AND ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.

A SPOKESMAN FOR THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT SAID THE SURVEY INVOLVED ABOUT 700 FIRMS FROM VARIOUS INDUSTRIES WHICH FORM A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECONOMIC COMMUNITY. THEY WERE ASKED ABOUT THE IR BUSINESS EXPERIENCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1978 AND THE IR EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER.

THE SPOKESMAN SAID THAT THE DATA, OBTAINED WITH A MINIMUM TIME LAG, WERE BASCIALLY INTENDED TO FACILITATE A QUICK ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION IN HONG KONG.

APART FROM A LIMITED NUMBER OF QUESTIONS REQUIRING ANSWERS IN QUANTITATIVE TERMS, HE ADDED, THE FIRMS WERE ASKED TO COMPARE THE QUARTER JUST PAST WITH THE PREVIOUS QUARTER AND, SIMILARLY FOR THE FORTHCOMING ONE.

THEY ONLY HAD TO INDICATE WHETHER, IN THEIR OPINION, A CERTAIN VARIABLE WAS 'UP', 'SAME' OR 'DOWN'.

HE THEREFORE CAUTIONED THAT IN A SURVEY OF THIS NATURE, CONSIDERABLE RESERVATIONS MUST BE MADE IN THE INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS, AS IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE RESPONDENTS' PERCEPTION OF THE PAST AND THE FUTURE ACCORDS WITH THE UNDERLYING TRENDS, AND THE SURVEY RESULTS ARE PROBABLY AFFECTED CONSIDERABLY BY SEASONAL ITY.

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