XN000022-1978-11-01 — Page 17

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 1, 1978

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WARNING OF A POSSIBLE MANPOWER SHORTAGE

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THE HON. T.S. LO WARNED THE GOVERNMENT IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TODAY, OF A POSSIBLE MANPOWER SHORTAGE IN THE NEXT FIVE OR SIX YEARS.

MR. LO REFERRED TO THE LIST OF MAJOR PUBLIC WORKS AND TRANSPORT PROJECTS DESCRIBED BY THE GOVERNOR IN HIS ANNUAL POLICY ADDRESS.

THESE INCLUDED THE ABERDEEN TUNNEL, THE MOTORWAY LINKING VICTORIA WITH SHAU KE! WAN, THE AIRPORT TUNNEL, THE WESTERN CORRIDOR, THE DOUBLE TRACKING AND ELECTRIFICATION OF THE KOWLOON-CANTON RAILWAY, THE SECOND HALF OF THE TUEN MUN ROAD, THE TSUEN WAN BY-PASS, THE SHA TIN/TAI PO MOTORWAY AND THE COMPLETION OF THE MASSIVE M.T.R. PROJECT, THE TOTAL COST OF WHICH IN PRESENT DAY TERMS WILL WELL EXCEED $13,000 MILLION.

THIS INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE WHEN ENORMOUS EFFORTS WILL BE PUT INTO THE CONSTRUCTION EACH YEAR OF PUBLIC HOUSING FOR ABOUT A QUARTER OF A MILLION PEOPLE.

+EVEN ASSUMING THAT OUR ECONOMIC GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD WILL REACH 9 PER CENT PER ANNUM COMPOUND, IS THE GOVERNMENT SURE THAT THERE WILL BE NO MANPOWER SHORTAGE FOR ALL THIS ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY WHEN ONE BEARS IN MIND THE FACT THAT DURING THIS PER IOD THE PRIVATE SECTOR WOULD NOT BE IDLE?+ MR. LO ASKED.

+SHORTAGE OF MANPOWER WILL MEAN SPIRALLING COSTS AND ALL OUR ESTIMATES FOR ALL THE PROJECTS DRAMATICALLY EXCEEDED. MOREOVER, THESE SPIRALLING COSTS WILL SERIOUSLY AFFECT OUR FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNING EXPORT INDUSTRIES SO THAT WE WILL BECOME EVEN LESS COMPETITIVE ABROAD.

+THE RESULTANT MAL-EFFECT ON OUR ECONOMY AS A WHOLE WILL CERTAINLY OUTWEIGH ANY TEMPORARY PSYCHOLOGICAL BOOST ARISING FROM THE FRENZIED SPENDING SPREE.

+ IN THE LONG TERM EVERYONE MAY SUFFER, HE SAID.

HE ASKED IF THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE ANY ESTIMATES ON THE AVAILABILITY AND REQUIREMENTS OF MANPOWER FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS AND SUGGESTED THAT BEFORE WE REACH A POINT CF NO RETURN, THE GOVERNMENT MIGHT SERIOUSLY CONSIDER SPACING OUT OUR P.W.D. PROGRAMME.

+BESIDES, TO SPACE OUT OUR ACTIVITIES SO AS TO EXTEND BEYOND THE NEXT FIVE TO SIX YEARS MIGHT VELL HELP TO ALLEY FATE THE PROBLEMS AR IS ING FROM A SURFEIT OF MANPOWER AFTER THE MID 30'S,+ HE ADDED.

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