XN000022-1977-11-13 — Page 7

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 1977

REPORT ON QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY

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THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT HAS COMPILED THE THIRD REPORT ON QUARTERLY BUSINESS SURVEY HELD LAST MONTH.

THE FIRST ONE WAS CARRIED OUT LAST APRIL.

A SPOKESMAN FOR THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT CAUTIONED THAT IN A SURVEY OF THIS NATURE, CONSIDERABLE RESERVATIONS MUST SE MADE IN THE INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS, AS IT HAD YET TO BE ESTABLISHED FIRMLY THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE RESPONDENTS' PERCEPTION OF THE PAST AND THE FUTURE ACCCRDS WITH THE UNDERLYING TRENDS.

+SOME 610 FIRMS FROM A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECONOMIC COMMUNITY WERE ASKED ABOUT THE IR BUSINESS EXPERIENCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF THIS YEAR, AND THEIR BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE FOURTH QUARTER OF THE YEAR, THE SPOKESMAN SAID.

+THE RESULTS SHOW WIDE VARIATIONS IN RESPECT OF LIKELY PERFORMANCE DURING THE FOURTH QUARTER OF 1977 BETWEEN PARTICULAR INDUSTRIES AND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL FIRMS, THOUGH THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT SOME GROWTH WAS LIKELY FOR THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE.

+ IN THE TEXTILE AND CLOTHING INDUSTRIES, THERE WAS MINOR IMPROVEMENT IN BUSINESS EXPECTATIONS. HIGHER BUSINESS CONF IDENCE IN THE "WATCHES AND CLOCKS' SECTOR WAS ESPECIALLY ENCOURAGING.

+FOR OTHER MANUFACTURING SECTORS, RESPONDENTS WERE NOT EXPECTING MUCH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT OVER THE IR RELATIVELY SATISFACTORY THIRD QUARTER PERFORMANCE.

+RESPONDENTS IN THE MANUFACTURING SECTORS WERE CAUTIOUS ON TRENDS, PROBABLY PARTLY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN EXPORT PROSPECTS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER.

+NON-MANUFACTURING SECTORS, ON THE OTHER HAND, SHOWED MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE WHICH REMAINED SIGNIFICANT EVEN AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE LIKELY FOURTH QUARTER SEASONAL EFFECT,+ THE SPOKESMAN SAID.

ON THE BUSINESS PERFORMANCE IN THE THIRD QUARTER, THE SURVEY SUGGESTED THAT THE ECONOMY, TAKEN AS A HOLE, ACHIEVED SOME GROATH. EXCEPT FOR THE TEXTILE INDUSTRY, WHERE OPINIONS VARIED GIVING NO CONCLUSIVE INDICATIONS, MOST MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES FELT THAT THEY HAD MADE SOME PROGRESS.

THE PLASTICS, PRINTING AND ELECTRICAL MACHINERY INDUSTRIES, IN PARTICULAR, REPORTED GOOD PERFORMANCE. THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY DID WELL. ALL THIS AS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.

FOR WHOLESALE AND RETAIL TRADE AND OTHER SERVICES, FIRMS REPORTED FAVOURABLE RESULTS WHICH WERE BETTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

/THE SPOKES:LAN

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