XN000022-1974-10-16 — Page 82

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Wednesday, October 16, 1974

Taken individually, the broad objectives of each

initial draft programme were believed to be probably within our resources on certain assumptions, and these assumptions

of course included a reasonable degree of flexibility from

year to year as the economic circumstances of Hong Kong

might change. But though the impact of all these programnes

on the budget in the immediately following year, that is to say 74/75, presented no large problem, it was only when

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all were in a reasonably complete form, and could be assembled to provide a forecast of likely expenditure if all were carried

out exactly in accordance with departmental estimates, that

it was possible to assess their real financial implications

for the years ahead. It was necessary to see them all before

there was any firm base from which to examine the priority

of each separate plan and the details of each separate plan.

itself, given that our resources were limited. In other words it was only at this point that realistic appraisal,

review and drafting of these programmes became possible.

It would have been necessary to carry out this process

of re-examination in any case, even against the background of

a buoyant revenue with a large surplus to the budget, and

with economic prospects that were clear for all to see. In

the event the re-examination was undertaken against the

background of the economic situation which I have described,

which though by no means bad, is certainly not easy to predict

'with precision. We are also now aware of the possibility of

a budget deficit this year, though there is nothing particularly

/alarming about