XN000022-1974-10-16 — Page 78

Wednesday, October 16, 1974

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of oil-based raw materials with their usual speed. Our

external trade continued to be buoyant in the first half of

this year and in the twelve months to June 1974, domestic

exports were over 8% more in volume than in the previous

twelve-month period.

But it has gradually become clear that the enormous rise

in the price of oil, attempts by some other commodities to

follow suit, balance of payments problems, lack of liquidity, and high interest rates, have all together produced a situation

in the rest of the world that will take time to solve, and

that a period of adjustment is inevitable. It is also

inevitable, and already evident, that during this period the

growth of world trade overall will not be as rapid as we have

become accustomed to in recent years. However, these inter-

connected problems are of such great importance for the world's

coonomies, and I might add the world's electorates, that at

least we have the assurance that they are receiving maximum

attention from Governments, and that the best brains available

everywhere are working on them. The problems involved are of

course new to both creditors and debtors alike. But insofar

as there have been any recent developments they have been in

the right direction. There has at least been no further dramatic

rise in the price of oil, and the beginnings of a process of

recycling of oil revenues can be discerned. Provided there is

no setback, one can reasonably expect that in due course these

tendencies will develop, with oil prices stabilising, the process

of recycling gaining momentum and finding new institutional

/channels