XN000022-1974-10-16 — Page 16

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WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 16, 1974

WHILE A PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT WAS INEVITABLE, SIR MURRAY SAID IT WAS EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST HOW HONG KONG WOULD FARE IN THIS PERIOD OF ADJUSTMENT BECAUSE SO MANY FACTORS WERE NEW AND RELATIVELY UNKNOWN AND VIRTUALLY ALL WERE OUTSIDE THE CITY'S CONTROL.

+CERTAINLY HONG KONG CANNOT HOPE TO AVOID SOME OF THE CONSEQUENCES OF A SLOWING DOWN IN WORLD TRADE. THE RATE OF GROWTH OF THE VOLUME OF OUR EXPORTS HAS DECLINED IN RECENT MONTHS.

+WE KNOW THAT MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT HERE, AND IN MANY CASES TAKE-HOME PAY, HAS BEEN FALLING AND EVEN ALLOWING FOR NORMAL SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN TRADE IT IS NOT CONCEIVABLE THAT THE FIGURE FOR THE GROWTH OF EXPORTS DURING THIS CALENDAR YEAR WILL BE AS HIGH AS THE CORRESPONDING FIGURE I QUOTED FOR THE TWELVE MONTHS TO JUNE,+ HE SAID.

SIR MURRAY PREDICTED THAT 1973 LEVELS OF EMPLOYMENT WOULD UNLIKELY BE REGAINED THIS YEAR.

+ONE CAN AT LEAST BE THANKFUL THAT INCOMES ARE NOT BEING EATEN AWAY BY INFLATION IN QUITE THE SAME WAY AS LAST YEAR= BUT I AM AFRAID IT WOULD BE WRONG TO ASSUME THAT THE EXTERNAL INFLATIONARY PRESSURES OF THE LAST YEAR HAVE FINISHED WORKING THEIR WAY THROUGH OUR ECONOMY, OR THAT THERE WILL NOT BE FURTHER ONES THIS YEAR,+ HE ADDED.

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