1947-08-22 — Page 6

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· THE CHINA MAIL, FRIDAY, AUGUST 22, 1947.

What Has Happened To

The Loan Dollars?

For weeks past the air hai | become daily thicker with warnings by Ministers about an impending dol'ar eriniu. The dollar loans, we are told, are being so rapid'y exhausted that before the end of the year they are likely to run out, leave ing us with no

resources to cover the huge deficit in our balance of payments.

No doubt the Government have of the facts before them 8 months... T.K.$18.00-

and the peril is real. But they never teli un just how the com- try has got into this mess. ....... H.K.$30.00

The ordinary citizen is left to II.K.$72.00

divine the mystery as best he can for himself. "Let us make the attempt.

6 month

One year

By J.C. Johnstone

Let in try to estimate the ef- fects of the fuel shortage and of the

rine in prices on our trade defleit.

Export Hopes Laying their original plans for 1947 immediately before, the fuel crisin, the Government felt entitled to assume that ex- ports would continue

at the same rate of expansion na in the latter part of 1946.

In the last quarter of 1946 the monthly average of exporta The Washington Agreement was 488,600,000, and thla re- of December, 1946, provided DEATH

for a dollar credit of 937.500,- Presented a volume of 111 per cent. of pre-war. The rate of 000, to be drawn upon at any expansion was such as to in- MARSHALL on 21st August, time within the five years end-dien e a volume of 118 per cent. Dec. 31, 1961. Shortly in the Brat quarter of 1947 and peacefully after lengthy it ing newя, ni St, Thereen Hun-afterwards a similar agreement of 125 per cent. in the second

with Canada provided for a pital Hong Kong, G. Tarik, aged 73," Beloved further credit of £312,500,000, husband of los and father making 1,250,000,000 in al. of Blanche Gordon and Francis.

quarter.

If exports had, in fact, ex- panded at this rate, and if the price level had remained stab'e

that some others are exercising thin right to be embarrassing extent,

There may also be other caust. For example, Govern. nient expenditure abroad (for example,

may on Germany) have been higher than anticipated.

WAB

Such appears to be a broad of our picture of the causes present plight, but it is a picture painted largely in the dark owing to the Government's perslo- tent abstention from disclosing the relevant information. The how for arises question now those causes where within the control of the Government, and how far outside it,

The above extmate of £280,- 000,000 as the additional deficit on the year due to the combined effects of the fuel crisis and the 000,000 in respect of the crisis rise in prices comprisca 170,- and £110,000,000 in respect of the rise in prices. The 179,- 000.000 does not differ signifi cantly from Sir Stafford Crippa's found figure of $200,000,000 as the loss in exporta due to the

Funeral cortege wan to tido ús over the inevit- where it was at the end of 1946, fuel crisia,

day at 5.30 p.m.

The purpose of the credits will pass the Monument to-able gap in our balance of pay

ments during the period of transition

to normal peace time conditions and to assist us in capital re-equipment.

NEW HOUSING OFFER

Government's invitation pavate enterprise to embark upon building scheines contributing to a solution of the housing problem is also somewhat in the nature of a challenge.

To find fault

Last year, thanks to the un- cxpcetedly favourable develop. tment of our trade position, we drew où these credits to the ex- tent of only £280,000,000, o hat we started this year with

970,000,000 still available.

Near The End The Government, according to

the Economic Survey for 1947, expected to limit their drawinga in 1947 to £360,000,- 000 and thus to have 4020,000,- 000, or approximately hat the credit, still in hand at the end of it. This would have been a situation which could fairly be described as comfortable.

with the nature of the offer made in the statement laid yesterday on the table in Legislative Council, is not easy, except that six weeks gives little time to Sponsors of building projects to draw, up com plere technical and financial plan, The demand for haste is not, however, in itself a inatter for criticism. After all, the whole weight of the attack on Govern ment for its failure to realise any

The question naturally sug- | substantial housing progress as gests itself why, with little

000.

In-

It will be seen that by far the more important of the two factors is the fuel crisia. deed, without it, the loss due to the rise in prices alone would hardly have given serious cause for alarm.

CARNIVAL

By Dick Turner."

TRANSOMEK SNUPE PRNATE DETECTIVES

"Can I follow you home after work today?"

,1-22

BARCLAY ON BRIDGE >>

By Shepard Barclay

S 83

H 8

"The Authority on Authorities"

have res-

may be calculated that the value of exports in the first half of this year would have been, about #682,000,000, as against the actual value of #551,000,000. Similar y, if import prices had not increased, the value of

Double Crisis whht we actually imported in

Responsibility for the fucl the same period would probably

the have been about £703,000,000 crisis is shared between £83,000,000 leas than they in miners and the Government. It was the miners who, by their. fnc: cost us.

winning. The spade 10 removed NO SENSE IN Thus the visible deficit on thej scandalous rate of over 10 per

South's Just honour in that suit, first half year's trading account] cent of voluntary abaenteelam,

CROWDING

Ile cashed the heart Q and. J. would have been about 120,- caused the shortage of coal, and

CROWDING the bidding un- then ran three

top diamonds. 000,000. In the second half of the Government who neglected

when the suit falled w the year, assuming as before to adjust the consumption of necessarily is bad bidding as a Hut, the same rate of expansion and coal to the supply, and assure rule. There is no sense in it if break, he had only nine tricks, your side has yet to locate then had to give up the setter to the same price level as in the adequate winter stocks.

This time last year, as the best declaration in which to play East, last quarter of 1946, exports

for the may require; It was unneccssary should have reached

South about Government themselves acknow. the hand, and £650,000,000. Imports at the ledged, it was almost a mathe- several other calls before you sitle to gel too high,

that, at the can be sure regarding the beat could have prevented the crowd- June volume, but at the price maticnl certainty evel of the last quarter of 1946, current rate of consumption and suit or No Trumps. When auch ing by bidding only 2-Spuder must be in problems remain to be solved, on his second turn instead ot That "reverse" would would be about $770,000,000, production, there making a defeit of £120,000,- sufficient stucka for even a mild best bidders take it easy when three.

winter unless action were taken. ever possible and give plenty of have been a one-round forea, to The Widened Gap No netton was inken until the time and space to learn salient which North could

machine was on the facts before the pair gets beponded with three of either This, the aggregate defélt on onemle rested on what has appeared to be more than half the your gate,] the gear would have been about polst of breakdown, and it was yond its depth. its willingness to leave time to we are siready in dire strain. 240,000,000. This agrees ap-ng excuse to plead the winter provide a solution. Murenver. Up, to the end of July, 586, proxima ely with the estimates wax hard. merit must be seen in proposals | 000,000 hus already been drawn in the Economie

The moment, however, the fuel Survey for which offer an advantage of bena-236,000,000 more than was 1947.

crisis was upon us the dollar fide housing planners, who have intended for the whole year, The actual situation is that erisin became as predictable as SJ 10 9 5.——————— already spent time and energy of Thus, with five months of in the first half-your the visible the fuel crisis itself had been, | preparing large-scale relicines, and 1947 still to come, we have ex- duflicit was £283,000,000, reflect are almost ready to submit them, pended-including last year's ing the effects both of the fuel and are not tempted to enter the drawings a total of £866,000-crisis and of the rise in prices. fich at this stage merely because 109, and have only 384,000,000! In June exports showed

At the recent marked

rt targets for this of the generosity of the Govern-outstanding.

recovery to 106 per ment offer. That it is a highly rate of expenditure this would cent, of their pre-war figure, as

longer be attained. IL needed no unusual clair. favorable offer will be readily only suffice till about November, compared with 97 per cent. In

foresee, that the Two reasons are adduced for April. If they were to resumo evance to arcepted. In essence, it involves this lamentab'e state of affairs expansion at

the rate of the balance of payments would bo the alienation of two of

first, the curtailment of ex-fast quarter of 1946 and the bound to deteriorate in the way vulnerable.)

North largest easily-developable building ports through the fuel crisis, price leve, were to remain where in fact hast, except perhaps East South sites remaining within

2.D easy and, second, the depreciation in it is, they should average in the inuo far as the position has Past 1 H distance of the urban area

4 C ON the value of the credits due to

remaining months of the year been aggravated by the effects Pass terms depriving Government of the rise in world prices.

PABR 4 NT Sir about 102,000,000, as against of convertibility, the exceptionally high premiums Stafford Cripps has just hinted 93,000,000

North decided-In which he Obscurantism la June. This! readily obtainable public at a

nt

third-an unexpected would give a total of aboul Yet, six months after the was correct that South's 4-No CAG. auction. In the interests of non-strain on stering as a resulty £615,000,000 for the half year. event, though talk la plentiful, Trumpha was not meant as a Blackwood convention slam try, profitmaking associations, Gov of convertibility, which begun

Imports at the June volume action has been tardy. Apart enment is prepared to sur.cnde on July 16.

and valuca would total £900,000-† from the budgetary onslaught on but an effort to play the hand 900 in the second half-year, tobacco Import and the saving of at that contract. It proved Just

one level too high, leaving a deficit of £285,000,000. one or two million pounds by

Despite the apudo bld, West The total gap on visible trad- the slashing of newsprint im-

be ports a gesture

ppened the J of that suit to the ing account would thus

worthy of

If West leads the heart 3 about 4520,000,000, or about, Mrs. Partington herself noth-South led his club to the £280,000,000 more than it seems ing has been done. Now the

A, took the spade 9 with the A, against a Ne Trump game and was reasonably to be expected Government are to produce some 10 to the J and played his heart and J to the what should led to the club K, gave up the South lays down the spade A, K

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ค even greater proportion of

what would be normally regarded

The

as reasonable premium.

ne condition attached to building sites allocated on these special terms is that Government wil retain control over the disposal oʻ the leases and the letting and sub-letting of the accommodation for a period of twenty years. For the individual, as for the larg corpuration, or for the cooperative organisation, a similiar opportuni- ty offers, on the undertaking that tile lestre intends to live himself

100 Years Ago

(From the files of the "Chino Mail.")

Between Wednesday evenin and Thursday morning, a burglars was committed In Cough Street.

ย

at the outset of the year.

These calculations are neces- sarily hypothetical, but if they are anywhere near correct, they would go some way towards ex plaining how the present position has arisen.

Convertibility

4

Economic Survey for 1947, DJ 9,

D'K: 9 6 4 2 CK 10 5 3 2

S 7 G

N10 64

A last-minute insertion in the HA 9 7 2 WED 10 B78

S [CJ 8 64

SAKQ 2 HKQJG3 DAS CQ 9

published carly in the fuel cristo, CA 7 expressly stated that previously conceived car co

fresh proposals.

(Dealer:

3 S

Earl. Eust-Weat

West Pass Pass

minor and then South could have bid just 3-No Tramps. But North was also at fault, After South's powerful bid of 3-Spades, North Rhould have taken a chance on 3-No Trumps, oven with his barl fit for the majors The combination of sing by both partners beat them deservedly out of a game which was there for them to score.

Tomorrow's Problem

"

S 7 8 2 HKB 4

DQ G

CQ J 10 8 3

II 10 7

WFDK49

S Q 8 64

S 10

HQ 063

N

2

D 10 7

S

1.

1 2 CK 761

SAKJ96 HAJO DA 86 C9 4

(Dealer: North. Neither sido vulnerable.)

A policy of import cute, Kan the returned 10, the A East discard? - especially dollar importa, la rational and necessary, but it should have been drastic and carly. The longer the delay the more severe must be the ultimate cuts. Judgment on the adequacy

They would mean that draw of the new programme Ings on the dollar credits during await ita disclosure. the year would be roughly

in the house he builds. Beyond the one further step-which may still prove to be unavoidable A Bungalow, was entered and | #020,000,000, as against the

behind-the-scenes

in this special connection, housing,

300,000,000 on which the Gov- ernment had reckoned.

some trunko of clothing corfled out n. the Verandah and ransacked The watchman,on the beat must have slept very soundly not t0|000,000 (including the £280,000,- have been disturbed.

000 drown in 1946) would have

At the end of the year 000,-

originally anli.

This, however, though bad

the whole year,

must

Threat To Singapore Rubber

YANKS IN ITALY WILL

DIG IN FOR WINTER

Leghorn, Aug. 20, American troops in Italy will dig in for the winter, Army officials disclosed today in the wake of unofficial reports that their stay has been shifted from a temporary to an indefinite status because of the Soviet delay in ratifying the Italian peace treaty..

The Army was caught off bal-, Rome urca wil! romain as a rest ance by the change in prospects zone. for; troops and a liaison for a stay in the Mediterranean centre. theatre and is now short of The number of American winter clothing and equipment. troops in the Mediterranean The Army originally planned theatre las been classified

the

a withdrawal by April 1, 1947, secret, but authoritative sources carliest koly date, set the gure at 20,000, Bri- which later was reset to Juno tlah troops in the threatre were 80. Now it is forced to order reported to number 80,000.--

tligt of Government assuming the role of property owner on, a very large scale, and embarking Construction of residential accom- modation of all kinds, no more effective way of stimulating build. This is the season for robberies, been used, and only £350,000,000 | ing operations in the immediate that a few trustworthy European future, as compared with the and it is particularly desirable would remain available for the future can be imagined. At last be appointed to go the rounds 420,000,000 we have a very definite contribu- and see that

the Indian police elputed. tim to a solution of the problemore awake and at their posts. We

Singapore, Aug. 21. and one that loses nothing in that apprehend that this duty is per enought, cannot be the whole

Twelve Chinese rubber the offer comes spontaneously formed in a slovenly manner. story. It does not explain why, factories are facing im- Iram Government and not as the the attractions of the Pubile Gutcome of

Houses proving too great for the drawings of £620,000,000 are mediate closure as a re- haggling. If little has been seen faithful gitardians of the night, the estimated requirement forsult of the stoppage of

£680,000,000 has already been expended dur-imports of raw rubber much has been heard of the capa- The "Amella," which has justing the first seven months. This from Sumatra. city of private enterprise to get arrived from the Sandwich is about 4230,000,000 more than In an interview with Central a complete balt in troop evacua- United Press. ⚫hings done under conditions ands, reports the discovery of a would be expected on the baals News, Lee Kong-chien, Preal- tion from the Morgan Line and offering the necessary incentive. large Island in Latitude 10 deg. of the actual trade deftelt to date, dent of the Singapore Chinese base Installations in Leghorn, Here, it would seem on the face 22 min. North, Longitude 141 deg. Where has all this money Chamber of Commerce, admit- Rome and cistwhere in Italy.

APPEAL of it, are such conditions. Cer-16 min. 30 sec. East; a calm at gone? An Important source of ted that the allustion was criti- Under the new programme, tainly, it is most, unlikely that the time. It appeared about 40 the drain is almost certainly the cul.

the 88th Infantry Division. will

Nuremberg, Aug. 20. more favourable opportunity will feet high and 4 miles long, very obligation of convertibility na He explained that the cause continue policing the Allied Dr. Friedrich Berghold, present itself, especially for these barren and of a brown colour, sumed on July 16 in accordance of the stoppage of Imports of zone of Venezia Giulia fronting counsel for the former Field wanting to building their ow

with the Washington Agree. raw rubbor from Sumatra was the Yugoslav zone. Loghora Maraha! Milch, said today that homes. For subsribe to that end

moht. This no doubt partly ex- partly due to the Dutch pro and surtounding unita will con- he had been officially Informed William Byrne, Tallor, hom turough a building association. Buckmaster's London, bege most plains the exceptionally heavy hibition of shipping along some tiuue as supply commands. The that the United States Supreme Court will hear his apponl for The sharp debate in Council a respectfully to inform the Gentry drawing of, 176,000,000 on the part of the east coast of Suma-

a review of the life imprison few weeks are was no doubt of China that he has commenced dollar credits in July, and it tia but mainly due to the Dutch

control of the exchange rate to morahunta,

ment sentenca, 23 influential in protichi Business in the above line on the may prove only temporary

Premiata situate in the Queen's

Under the convertibility ar- between the Guilder and the Nevertheless, Mr. Los Bald Milch was found guilty ten opposite the Commissariat rangement countries acquiring Stralis dollar, that is true Goveniment is nam

the government could not afford months ago of war crimes and In the blackmarket, one Guild- to Ignore the threat to the crimes against humanity, in- throwing back (the onus of equals to only 20 cents of Colony's economic stability and volving medical experimenta achieving results. The Yenome known llouse and other ambient it into dollars. Many countries the Straits currency whoress that he licerely believed and tion and plave labour, will be watched with keen inter Houses in London, to meet with have entered into agreements Lutch Insisted on the official urgently hoped something would The appeat will come beforé cit, and, it is to be hoped, with that patronage and support that with us not to do so beyond rate of 80 cent to a Straits be done in order to remedy the the Supreme Court in October.

satisfaction..

it will ever be ħla study to merit, stipulated limits, but it seems dollar, which was unacceptable situation.--Central Nows, -Unlied Peten,

•

scheme at this stage. "Ineofar, stoland W. B., trusts from his sterling' on current trailing : 1% }