1938-11-14 — Page 10

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RUSSIA - AND THE CRISIS

Is it not time that Britain made up its mind whether or not it desires to work with Soviet Russia or to allenate her com- pletely for the future? One way of putting Mr. Cham- berlain's recent policy would be to say that he attempted to work with Germany and Italy and was brought by them to the very brink of war, while Russia, whom he had cold- shou dered, had actually to be welcomed at the finish as our ally if war came." Two principal Ministers, Sir John Simon and Sir Samuel Hoare, did what they could during the recent debates to undo the harm that had already been done.

They said that there was no in- tention of pushing Russia back eastwards and that it was hop- ed that she, too, would join in any international guarantee of the-new Czecho-Slovakia.

One would have thought that in view of the international posi- tion in which we are left by the Munich Agreement a policy of working in the most friendly way with Russia would be ac- cepted not only as simple com- mon sense but as necessity. But that is not the opinion, it seems, of Lord Winterton, who is reported to have told an au- dience that Russia did not offer help in the crisis but "only made very vague "promises owing to her military "weak-

ness.

•

tance, and Great Britain and Bussia will certainly stand by France." It is precisely this announcement that the three countries would be “in” to- gether which many people as- sert, whether rightly or wrongly, to have caused Herr Hitler at the eleventh hour to agree to the Munich Confer- ence. At all events it is a de- finite, forma!, "authoritative” declaration from London of Russia's solidarity with Britain and France and the time may come when we shall be glad of such another. It is astonishing that any Min- ister should be found speaking as, did Lord Winterton, and Parliament should lose no time in asking the Premier where he and the Cabinet stand

For

or does Cabinet responsibility no longer exist?-regarding Lord Winterton's utterance.

The Trade Cycle

Governments come and Govern- ments go, but in Britain up to now-if Sir William Beveridge is right they have no more been able to check the irresis- tible ebb and, flow of national trade than King Canuté could stop the sea.

Sir William has been making a statistical study of the recur-

·rence of good and bad periods in employment in Britain cov- ering the period from 1860 to 1938, and he has come to the conclusion that the so-called trade cycle is a fact. Those seventy-eight years were

WA

marked by alternate periods of rising and falling employment, each rise or fall generally last- ing for three years or more, but with some deviations in the length of time between the peak of the boom and the nadir of the slump. Plotted as, cur- ves the levels of employment were seen as wave-like move- ments of unequal, but not in- definitely unequal, length. Now although these periods have been studied in the main from British statistics, they reflect the conditions of the world as a whole, since British trade is much governed by its exports and imports, its prosperity or the reverse depending to great extent on the world de- mand for goods. Whenever trade is flourishing the government of the day in every country seeks to take the credit; when trade is depress- ⚫ed it is blamed. Yet in 1931 and 1932 we find three countries- the United States, Great Brit- ain and Sweden-all suffering from a depression, though were of their governments widely different complexion. Sir William's evidence is im

pressive, and at first sight it may seem gloomy. For it seems to show that nothing any gov- ernment has done has succeed- ed in arresting this remorse- less swing in the economic des- tiny of nations. But no such conclusion is justified. It is not suggested that this harsh alternation is forced on the world for all time in the fun- damental nature of things. On the contrary, It is the outcome of human methods. The situation is diagnosed. Socio- logists can now proceed to find a cure. Sir William Beveridge suggests that more drastic measures must be taken than. any that have been used. But his argument implies, surely,

not more draatio, me: experimental in characte more aure measures, an exact study of the päht.

The Russian Ambassador in Lon- don naturally protested to the Foreign Office and recalled the speech at Geneva in which Mr. Litvinoff affirmed Russia's intentions to fulfill all her obli- gations. But this country has conclusive evidence of its own. On September 27, at the very peak of the crisis, the news- paners all over the world pu- blished a statement which was issued from “authoritative |_ British quarters" in London.. Everyone knows what is meant in atch a connection by the word "authoritative." The statement! said that if Cre

akla were, after all, attacked map nó the

must be that

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