1938-10-13 — Page 18

DRAFT

THE CHINA MAIL, OCTOBER

·18, 1938. ·

ESTIMATES

Financial Secretary's Speech In Legislative Council

Reference to expenditure of an emergency nature, and to a probable deficit of nearly $3,000,000, was made by the Financial Secretary, Mr. S. Caine, in introducing the Draft Estimates in Legislative Council to-day.

That

Next there are a number of heads of expenditure in which increases are not automatic in the sense of, aris- ing out of legal commitments but are unavoidable unless substantial changes in government policy are made. These are defence services und the large group of social services, particularly health and education.

Under the head of defence in the estimates very much the largest item is the defenco contribution. Apart from the possible change in the whole

hardly be safe to assume that we the can continue to receive from existing sources of taxation so largo a revenue as is expected for the cur- rent year or even so much as the les- world sur-

ser sum estimated for next year.

Mr. Caine said, in part:- Looking at the figures of revenue and expenditure, they show a small anticipated surplus for the current accounting adjustments. plus is, however, illusory because at for certain year, before allowing the end of the year we shall be owing nearly a million dollars of military contribution which must be paid next coming in year. Revenue is still

even well but money is going out faster than early in the year. We are having to incur a great deal of ex- penditure of an emergency nature and the true outcome of the year is like- ly to be a small deficit rather than a small surplus. The short payment of military contribution ought to be kept very prominently in mind by all those who are inclined to take a rosy view because of the large nominal surplus shown in our monthly accounts, DEFICIT

As to next year, the Estimates show a probable deficit of $2,400,000 which will reduce our available surplus to $11,000,000 but if the various items of additional expenditure which Your Excellency has foreshadowed are in- cluded, the deficit will be over $2,- 800,000.

I imagine, however, that what must strike anybody examining the figures of both revenue and expenditure most strongly is their magnitude: They are substantially higher than in any previous year and the question must arise whether that is d temporary phenomenon or whether these figures are likely to be continued in future years. It is with that question in mind that I propose to discuss the position.

The increase on the revenue side, which is spread over nearly all the main heads, is duo primarily to the larger population of the Colony. So far as one can distinguish between the two it is the magnitude of the population rather than the extent and profitability of business activity which most influences our revenue.

HOSTILITIES

ex-

is

is

COLONY'S

FINANCIAL

POSITION

The estimated financial position

system, that expenditure is not with- of the Colony for 1939 was laid on in our control. Other defence penditure is legally at least within the table at the meeting of the practical Legislative Council this afternoon the discretion but for all crease in it by forces beyond control to stand at $36,097,325 while the purpose we are compelled to an in and shows the estimated revenue, of this Colony.. Our expenditure

estimated expenditure for the year truly for defence purposes and designed solely to help in meeting any should be $38,502,760, thus leaving

rendered an estimated deficit of $2,405,435. possible attack, but it is

Recurrent expenses take up over imperative by the fear of war which,

while provision of the $35,000,000

Works Extraordinary ghastly as it seems to all intelligent

to-day. The comparatively Public people, overhangs and darkens small heads of the Volunteer Defence amounts to $2,333,235.

The estimated General Revenue When we turn, however, to expen- Corps and the Naval Volunteer Force a result. diture I fear that there is loss pro- are increasing in cost as

years. Those increases must continue so long Balance at December 31, 1939

in-should be $11,121,488. spect of reduction in future The main increases are shown under as the dictates of policy require pensions; defence, including military creases in the numbers of those for- contribution; police; medical; chari- ces and the supply to them of table services; and public works. I and more expensive equipment in or- ignore the increases under Post Office der to keep peace with modern mili- and Railway which are higher run-tary requirements, ning costs likely to be offset by high- er receipts.

SOME REDICTION

me-

·

more

a

for

A NEW GAME · FROM HOLLYWOOD

Southampton.

The French liner Normandie

ties to England recently. brought several Hollywood notabili-

"Knock," I said. He shook his head and beckoned to me with both hands. That meant I was near, but not quite there.

A. R. P.

defence The principal increase in expenditure.for which we must allow we is, however, in the sphere of air raid The only head under which

of figure of $50,000 was inserted, admit- can reasonably expect any substan- precautions. In the 1988 estimates a tial reduction after 1989 is that military contribution and that because, tedly as a token vote, I regret to say

will In Mr. George Sanders, 6ft. 3m. vote as already explained, we are provid- that it has been necessary to exceed ing in 1939 for a large payment on that figure very substantially and

supplementary account of 1938.

additional Under other heads of expenditure I due course be placed before Coun- English actor who made a Holly-

approval. The

wood hit in "Lancer Spy," returned fear that far from expecting reduc- cil for tions we must prepare for further expenditure was decided upon arter the increases. There will for example be printed Estimates before you were pre- bringing a new game. It is called unavoidable. in-pared and instead of the figure appear-"Indications."

Indications depends on the art of an automatic and crease under the head "Pensions" ing in them the revised estimate

1988 must now be put at $120,000. In conveying a phrase entirely with given in the The figures

"Evening Stan- morandum circulated with the esti- 1939 the head shows a further large mates show an increase of some 80 expansion to a total of $338,065. Even the hands, without making any

and 1988, that, however, is providing for a first sound, writes an per cent. between 1986

are instalment only of what the Air Raia dard" reporter... year

"I'll give you an easy one," he Comparisons before that vitiated by exchange fluctuations but Precautions Officer considers necessary the for the protection of the civil popula- taking sterling payments alone pensions bill has more than doubled tion against air attack. I may say that said. He held up-three fingers. That since 1930. There is no sign that the nis original estimates provided for ex-meant that the phrase contained He went through the motion of increase is yet coming to an end. It penditure next year of many times the three words. must be remembered that the pension sum now in the estimates and there bill is in the main governed by the can be no doubt that large further ad- establishment and the salary scales in ditions to equipment and stores will be knocking on a door.

ago necessary in subsequent years.. De- existence ten or twenty years

itcisions have not yet been taken as to to the exact supplies of, for example, gas and little can be done to reduce immediately unless Government is default on its obligations. Some at- masks which should be provided and

I thought again, “Rap,” I said. He shot out his hand, pointed to. tempt has been made to stem the tide most of this Head is contained in the of increase in the more distant fu- single sub-head of $250,000 for all kinds ture by the recent adoption in all the of equipment. under the title of Mobi-

word.. senior grades of the service of newlization Stores, which may well have to me to indicate that I hit the right scales of salary which provide lower be substantially supplemented even during 1939. In addition to the expen-

I got the next. It was "So," indi- pensionable emoluments.

diture shown under the: Air Raid Pre- that popula

PUBLIC DEBT Assuming therefore

Another head which may be ex-caution Head, provision is being made cated by the motion of stitching a

under Public Works Extraordinary for button on to his sleeve. tion is the major factor in our re-

pected in a few years to show

raid venue it would seem that we very largely dependant on the course automatic increase is that of public the erection of certain stores and other of events in China, to the disturb- debt charges. We have been charg-buildings in connection with air

of $200,000. Here again it may be his bosom.

"Die," seemed indicated-making ances in which the recent increase in ing to loan account considerable capi- precaution work at an estimated cost by the act of plunging a dagger in population here is due. It must be tal expenditure on waterworks

The congratulatory the wish of everybody that a satis other items but much of the actual necessary to come to Council later for other special constructional work con-

finger pointed again. factory end should be brought to the money has so far been found from approval of supplementary votes for rhapsody." Sino-Japanese hostilities and once that advances made out of our

RELIEF end is reached I think it must be ex-balances. That cannot go on for ever nected with air raid precautions. pected there will be some decline in and some day a loan must be raised

To some extent connected with ima picture. We are fortunate in being the population and therefore in the to repay these advances. The amount

future in the revenue of this Colony. We hope of advanced at the end of the current provement of health are certain items for the moment free of anxiety for the com- sense, I mean-and the passing for the course that when peace is restored year is expected to be something over of expenditure on the relief and assis-immediate normal trade will again recover and $12,00,000 and debt charges on that, tance to various classes of the that some of the manufacturing deve- at the same rate as are now being munity. The problem we, have most time being of acute financial stringency lopments which have taken place in paid on the part of the loan already prominently before us at the moment has enabled us to open the purse-strings the Colony of recent months will not raised would amount to about $900,- is that of the unfortunate persons who a little more freely and to permit cer- are destitute on the streets as a result tain necessary, often very acutely ne- be merely temporary; but it would 000 a year.

of the incursion of refugees from South cessary, expansions and developments, China. A sum of $150,000 has been without reducing our estimated surplus provided under Charitable Service for balances at the end of 1989 below the the relief of such destitutes but if the $10,000,000 mark which has been re- are now being erected garded up to now as the minimum re- has have to be maintained in full operation serve. But as Your Excellency for the whole of next year I fear that suggested, that is not a large reserve. the expenditure will substantially ex-With a $40,000,000 budget in prospect ceed that amount. Moreover the pos- it is no more than three months re sibility must be faced that many of venue and it would undoubtedly be well these people who have become the res- to increase it, especially in view of the ponsibility of the Colony as a result of many uncertainties, which still

If this view of the outlook is correct, the disturbances in South China will re-round the Colony's future. main a responsibility for years to come.

of recent years the expenditure of therefore, the problem is of finding the Colony has been in the neighbour- means to meet the prospective increas- hood of 880,000,000 with a tendency to ed, expenditure. The alternative is to

are

an

and

surplus

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SUITCASES-

The third syllable was indicated

financial.

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EXPENDINGmine Compressed rise. Next year we are contemplating abandon or modify the policies which

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1ST FLOOR

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an expenditure of nearly $39,000,000. give rise to it. I believe, that in every If the policies I have referred to are instance I have refered to it will ba to be maintained, my successor of money well spent and money which few years hence, may be presenting a this Colony as a community can afford

Budget of $40,000,000.

NOT GLOOMY

to spend; but Government must consi- der how it can itself, secure the neces- In suggesting that, I am deliberately sary funds and this, I would urge, in trying to correct the impression of the time to consider that question, not rosy, financial outlook which our soar some years hence when we shall be ing revenues may have given, but I am already committed and faded perhaps. not by any means painting too gloomy with aiready depleted cash balances.