1937-09-01 — Page 8

THE BOOM AND THE SLUMP

REARMAMENT AS A PALLIATIVE

THE trade cycle is by now a phe- which the original impetus towards motion the vicious downward spiral which has been pro

Tnomenon of quite considerable a downward movement can

THE

The lesson of 1929 32 is that, what ever those features of our

amore or can cer the main attributed It is not impossible that antiquity, and its characteristic tributed

The depression of 1929-32 exhibit may be, they are still present in the to it features have been well catalogued.

But In each phase we expect to find ed the characteristic pattern of be post-war world, and therefore still recession will set in while that ex- certain well-established collocations haviour, including the self-aggra hable to blast our fair prosperity. perditure is still proceeding.

"From this it seems The boom has also been exhibit- if it can be made to accelerate suf- of conditions connected with the vating process.

in ficiently sharply, not at once, but as price level, the rate of interest, the fair to infer that it belonged to the ing the characteristic pattern circulation of money, the production class of phenomena which we call many respects, so that it would be and when the decline in private in- of various categories of goods, and cyclical depressions If this infer- a foolish man who would argue that vestment makes itself felt, a reces- so on. Though it is necessary to ence is correct, the question of the since 1932 we have put all the trou- sion is unlikely so long as the acce- Recovery admit that there are substantial dif- initiating impetus becomes a matter bles connected with the trade cycle leration is maintained.

2. Foreign Trade-- ferences from one cycle to another, of minor importance from the point behind us.

It is of interest to consider when came later in certain other impor- yet, on the whole, it is fair to say of view of further prognostication, that the movements proceed in ac since a large variety of different the next depression is due to set in. tant countries than here. In the cordance with a pattern of behaviour types of initiating factors have been Prediction is hardly possible. Past United States it did not get well un- What experience has not exhibited any der way until 1935, and the persis- which we have learnt from experien- found to operate in the past.

is common to depressions is the great regularity of timing. Further tently low level of constructional ac 'ce to expect.

to the trade cycle tivity there suggests that the boom It must be noticed in particular sequence of events then set up, and more, reference that in the depression certain mu- what is important in order to secure may be an oversimplification. A is in a comparatively early phase. to understand what are threefold distinction may be drawn. In the gold-block countries their tually aggravating forces are set up, a remedy is t

American investigators have been special currency position retarded so that the evil consequences far ex- the features in our system that,

set in interested in a shorter cycle than recovery. There are thus important ceed in magnitude any forces to given, the initiating cause,

that to which we usually direct our parts of the world in which it would attention namely, one lasting for be surprising if expansion did not three or four years. By that reck continue for several more years. oning the setbacks there experienced It is possible that the next world in 1924 and 1927 count as depres- depression may not be so well syn- sions. For them Mr. Chamberlain's chronised as the last, but we may lumbrellas may serve We have hope that forces making for contin- been in the habit of attending more med revival in other countries may Broadcast," a running with a blow to the jaw and the to a cycle of greater length and am- keep us afloat by enlarging the de-

plitude, which may well run along mand for our exports. commentary on the Shang-Tiger goes down for

House building has played a very hai war by "In Parenthesis of the Sorry folks, my mistake, it's only side the smaller cycles. In the

the referee who has dropped his war century this usually lasted be special part in the present upward N.C.D. News.

cigar. Now they are in the middle tween seven and ten years. The movement. The approach of the ef- of the ring looking each other over years 1920 and 1929 were peak fective demand for new houses to- wards satiety may be a decisive fac- broadcast comes to you through the again, and neither is enjoying the years, so how do we stand now? courtesy of the North-China Daily sight. Ding-hao Dandy leads off Thirdly, the last century has also tor. At the same time the existence News" Here we are in the ring with a right to the chin, then an- been marked by phases of prosper of a great ineffective working-class side seats of the biggest prize fight other right, and another right ity and depression running for still demand may give the Government the sporting world has ever seen. They all miss and Tokyo Ti-longer periods. A period of some its greatest opportunity for taking Three million people, three million people, folks, are present to-night ser recovering from the rain thirty years of great expansion cul- anti-slump measures. The artificial

of blows steps in and tries for minating in 1873 was followed by a encouragement to see the championship of the Orient decided between two well Ding-hao's body. And it's one-two- known heavy weights. We know three, one-two-three, one-two-three!

Ding-hao counters with there are three million people pre- right. left-right, left-right. Oh boy! sent, folks, because a million and

What a fight! What a fight! Ding- a half got a without paying. On hao steps quickly into the middle boy! Oh, boy! Oh boy! What a of the ring: the Tokyo Tiger quick- crowd! All the best people in ly follows and if either of them hits Shanghai are here. amongst us to-night .

WE

Hello!

WORLD GOES BY By "ULYSSES"

Hello! Hello!

Mike?

"Aw! cut 'im out.”

"This

We have who's

2 one.

left-

pre

•

By R. F. Harrod

University Lecturer In Economics. At Oxford

last house-bilan

Houses are

în the

as a method for com- the other they'll know all about it. prolonged depression Now they're swapping punches, but quarter of the century, which in bating the next depression may be that white haired gink over there, they don't hurt each other much. turn gave place to a further period recommended not only on purely There they go again one-two-three, of expansion lasting until the war. trade cycle grounds but by the fol one-two-three, left-right, left right. The depressions of the 7/10-year lowing consideration. "All right, all right, all right! Ding-hao Dandy goes down for cycle tend to be longer and more built to last a number of decades. Folks Fm here to tell you, this is

No, he didn't go down. severe when it lies within one of We may be assured that their occu the biggest fight ever witnessed in He only slipped a little and the these larger phases of depression. pants will be able to afford some the Ori

thing better over the average of the the Far East I mean,

gong goes for the end of Round and conversely.

next fifty years than they can af- Here he comes, the Tokyo Tiger, One. I will now hand the micro-

Mr. Colin Clark has recently made

ford now. But unaided private en- weight 4 tsubo, 3 ri, 6 koku. Close phone over to Horrible Herbert ly following him into his

terprise is bound to cater for more own who will sum up

the round for some interesting calculations which

This appear in the June number of the

or less current needs only. corner it the Ding-hao Dandy, from

you.**

Taking his consideration is further reinforced Nanking, weight 8 mow, 3 fung, 1

Horrible Herbert: "Hello, Hello, "Economic Journal.” li and 5

São And, boy, how?. hello! This broadcast comes to statistical findings in conjunction by the national interest that houses "Now the referee is talking to you through the courtesy of the with a trade cycle formula which he should be built on an adequate scale, them in the ring. They each re-North Sorry! Well folks, has devised, he reaches the conclu to give accommodation for suf- turn to their corners, and judging what a fight, what a fight! At first sion that recession is likely to set ficiently large families to enable the from the way they walk, folks, it I thought it was anybody's fight, in at the close of the current year population to replace itself. might be anybody's fight. They but now that I have seen them both His formula is a reasonable one, but The indicators with regard to the didn't shake hands and oh boy, this in the ring I figger that both of it is not possible to place implicit time and severity of the next slump must be a grudge fight. Both men them are going to win. This round reliance upon it. However, his con- are inconclusive. We do not know are trained to the last-minute and has been devoted to looking each clusion does no violence to one's gen- whether this cycle lies within the confidence of the public in their other over and feeling each other feral sense of what is probable; one larger era of expansion or stagna- abilities is such that both are out, and now that they know what would be inclined to believed that tion. If the argument with regard favourites with the big money at each looks like and how he feels the beginning of the end is now to the slump of 1929-32 is correct evens. There goes the gong for we may get some action in the next fairly near but for two complicat namely, that its s the first round. I will now hand few rounds. But, boys, this rounding factors.

Ip

Ip: "Hello hello hello This broadcast comes to u through the courtesy

by

a

rity was con- nected not with the initiating canse

the

the mike over to Jp of the "North has been full of fight. Ding-hao 1 Rearmament. A boom is us- but with the intensification in the China Daily News." Here you are has been throwing everything ex-ually marked a high level of in- modern world of those forces which

cept the kitchen stove and the

a capital goods, and its always have ma for cyclical de- vestment in Tokyo Tiger has been replying with

the

ground for termination is accompanied by a de- pression, the same sort of hardware. I'vel

that alarm bout

rity of cline in profitable openings tasked Joe and he says the boys

in the pink There is ncing about it, folks if they both

they will stay the dista ksta fight, WHAT A FIGHT! [now take you over to Ballzoo

from

can it.

overnment

Ding-hac Dandy

avour