1937-06-07 — Page 11

T

THE CHINA MAIL, JUNE 7, 1937.”

Outlook For Empire

HREE great interrogatives over

hang the future of the British Empire. The first is: Will it be sub- jected to the strain of a great war, and, if so, will it survive? This question, indeed, confronts not only the Empire but all Western, or, at least, European civilization.

The second is: Will the political aspirations which attend the equal- ity of status that some parts of the Empire have attained, and others are approaching, take a disruptive form or that of constructing a new kind of federal association?

colonies for the imports of all coun- We shall do well to remember the imperial trade in Britain's tries. She recognized the obliga- less easily discernible sources of external trade will tions of a creditor country, and her strength thus demonstrated, as well

other use. Though mai large foreign-drawn revenues im- as the more obvious disadvantages trad posed no strain on the world's ex- recited above. Taking both into neif changes, for they were reinvested account, I will hazard a prophecy az “multi as fast as they were earned.

that development will proceed on resti

faire

be ila-

in

external to these will result section-

Within the limits that are still the following lines, on the assumption will con possible and still needed under a tion of the avoidance of war and most countrie gold standard, the pound was man- of political disruption which would trade will be aged with wisdom and prudence. make all economic forecasts merely national policies. This

The mere recital of these lead- wild guesses.

probably in a perm ing features of Britain's position in

alism” of foreign tra the present the nineteenth century ia aufficient The proportion of Great Britain's bi-lateral arr

to becoming to show why the future is regarded present external trade to her domes- pluri-lateral but not universal. If the Empire emerges success with grave doubts and anxiety. tic market is likely to be greater The net result far as Great fully from these two uncertainties, Every one of them has seen a great than at present, but permanently Britain is concerned, will be a re-

rnal and there remains the third question, change, as we shall see if we look less than before the World War. A stored ext

inter-imperial which forms the subject of this at each in turn.”

larger fraction of it again as com- trade, on different basis and article: What will be the future. Even Great Britain's geographic pared with the pre-war position bearing a smaller proportion to her economic position of Great Britain

internal trade than in the past. and the Commonwealth as a whole,

Great Britain will not recover her and in particular what will be their

past supremacy in foreign trade, but position in world trade?

her wealth and standards of living are likely to rise absolutely with as distinct the general improvement in indus- This change trial technique.

By Sir Arthur Salter

goon

and

position does not offer its earlier will be inter-imperial For a hazardous guess

for at the advantages;

the centre of from foreign trade. answer to such a question we shall gravity may be shifting toward the will, however, depend less, if at all, This I believe to be a sober esti- find little assistance from the re- Pacific, and the western Atlantic upon a system of strictly imperial mate of the probable development Both economic and in the next generation, on the as- cent statistics which measure first with the Panama Canal-may be preferences.

political consideration will lead to sumption indicated. One conclud- the great fall in British trade dur preferable to the eastern. ing the depression and then the

between arrangements Population, both in Great Britain the

the ing word as to the immediate future slow recovery and change in trade and in all countries which are large Dominions and Great Britain being is desirable. The changes in the channels of the last few years. A importers, is becoming stationary widened and modified so as to in British Cabinet after the Coronation to decline. clude other countries where trade are likely to give a somewhat more broader survey of past characteris- and is destined

the is close and complementary and protectionist complexion to British tics and present tendencies is need- Laissez faire is throughout ed.

world giving place to policies of whose commercial policy is similar policy; and the expansion of the Great Britain was, of course, the state ownership, or control, or and capable of reciprocity.

domestic market during rearmament pioneer, and for long the indisput- participation, or meticulous

If we turn to the non-self-govern will further tend to hamper exter- able leader, in the development of comprehensive regulation, subsidy ing colonies, political considera nal trade and policies designed to world trade, which was made pos- or protection.

tions will lead to a similar result. assist it. sible by the industrial revolution. The equipment of the world with Discriminatory tariffs in favour of

At the same time there will be and the inventions of the last cen- industrial plants is showing less the metropolitan country will arouse some inducement to relieve the tury. Her geographical position, immediate benefits and now inflict- dangerous resentment out of pro- colonial problem by a more liberal for an "Atlantic" era of commerce; ing more lasting losses upon the portion to any possible economic colonial economic system. British her rich stores of the main source older, exporting countries.

advantages. Great Britain is likely, policy will be the resultant of the of power, coal; the stage reached

therefore in time

time to return to her pull of these different forces. But in her political development, which

old policy of equality of opportu- the main purpose of this article has gave free scope to the aptitudes of

nity and other imperial countries been to guess at, not the immedi ate, but the more distant future- The greater proportion of inter- Christian Science Monitor

Don't be vague

her people, gave her a long start.

The foreign trade of the world is a lower proportion of total trade and is increasingly bilateralized; to follow suit. and Great Britain enjoys a smaller fraction of a diminished total. The pound is no longer the undisputed world currency, but only a principal

A general principle of laissez faire modified only by not in- superable tariffs -restricted the action of governments throughout the world and gave the fullest en- currency among rivals; it is not

couragement and opportunities to

longer anchored to gold and, though enterprising exporters. Even when well managed, is managed with less- a formidable competitor, along her

relative power and resources. own line of business, appeared with Great Britain's balance of payments the growth of the German Empire, no longer shows a large reinvest- this new intervention created as ment surplus, but a bare equili- many new markets as it supplied. brium.

.

Even when industrialisation spread And, lastly, under these stresses! to previously primitive countries, her own basic policy has changed. the first effect was to increase the During the last six years-for be demand, which British manufac- fore then the departures from her turers supplied for industrial plant. traditional policy were unimportant Under these conditions, Great except as omens of the future- Britain obtained the lion's share of Great Britain has become a protec- world trade! she drew, in dividends tionist country; has arranged pre- and interest nearly £200,000,000 a ference with the Dominions; and year; one third of her production has imposed preferential duties on was for export; her population and her non-self-governing colonies..-- her standard of living rose far It is perhaps not to be wondered above the levels that would other- at that many observers, considering wise have been possible; she estab- the cumulative effect of all these lished and maintained the main changes, have prophesied a future framework of currency and com- in which British foreign trade, and, mercial law for all foreign trade; indeed, the general strength of the and her own policy and economic British economic position, will be structure were adapted

to

these only a shadow of its past, that Great “Britain will fall to the rank of a It can at least be claimed that secondary power and that the Em- the policy which determined the use re... even while politically intact, of the great power she so enjoyed, will economically be disrupted, each if adjusted to her own self interests- unit being drawn into a different was at least enlightened and liberal, sphere of economic attraction. She adopted free trade as the basis Thèse same observers would, of her own policy, hoped that other however, for the most part have countries would follow suit, and foretold a much earlier collapse even when this hope was except in under the strains of the economic a few cases disappointed, she con- depression and financial crisis. tinued to offer a free market for Those last years, even when every the world.

fundamental facts.

allowance is made for fortuitous and temporary factors, have cer She used neither her Empire nor tainly needed both a greater capar her navy to impose diff ential ad- city for adaptation and deeper re- vantages for her own manufactur- serves of economic strength than ers, leaving an “open door" in her were visible to the prophets of in.

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