1937-02-27 — Page 3

NOT SAFE TO PROPHESY

way. His ambition is to complete

5,000 miles of new railways with-, in five years, and thus practically to double the existing system

ways.

Hopes For Close Understanding With Canton

On Basis Of Goodwill And Reciprocity

years ago.

pleased to answer any question that may be asked, to the best of my ability.

Mr. Taggart's Speech

Mr. J. H. Taggart, rising to ac-

to think out

within that period. At the same over 3 million piculs higher than gards the budget, we must con- time he has been bringing his ever recorded in the past. The fess to misgivings. But as re- business training to bear on the acreage under production is fur-gards trade, the position hardly problems of the existing lines and ther estimated to have increased seems to warrant pessimistic con- cord formal support to the motion he has the good fortune to point at least 12% over the previous clusions. Last year's figures again covering the adoption of the Re- to record earnings on those two high mark Much of the credit showed considerable expansion port and Accounts, said:-I have very important lines, the Peiping for the good cotton crop must be and compare very favourably with at the back of my mind advice Hankow and Tientsin-Pukow Rail-given to the National Economic those of many other countries, made available to a Shareholder Council, a tribute to whose work Exports have increased about 8 in a similar position of seconder, Financing Issue

was paid by your Chairman two in spite of the handicap of tariffs in connection with the flow of and quotas, while the visible adwords deemed advisable to suit- Some of the agreements made

The improved demand for wood-verse balance of trade is believed ebly amplify the bare expression by the Ministry during the year oil has made that commodity the to have been covered by invisible of acquiescence, to the following for railway construction have

leading one in the list of Chinese receipts. Shipping has been very effect:-To think out carefully the“ been on a comparatively short

exports, beating all records both prosperous and the tourist trade opening sentence, term and somewhat uneconomic.

in. value and quantity. greater than ever. The drastic ex-carefully the closing sentence, and basis, but we understand that the

together as Other export commodities show in-change control measures institut-to bring the two Chinese Government argue that provements, especially tin, but one ed on January 8th of it is essential to press forward on feature of the year is the trend to aimed at dealing with the nervous-

this year speedily as possible.

I trust that my endeavour to whatever terms they can best ob-wards monopolies and state control in

adhere to the principles of that tain credits. Their view is that the export trade, which is partly due ness in the exchange market caus-

to the conclusion many of their most serious pro-ments with foreign countries. The the prospects of heavy buying me open to charges of inadequacy, of barter agree-ed by the unbalanced budget and golden rule will not, to-day, leave blems will be automatically solv-economic wisdom of this policy is of abroad to cover Army and Navy particularly in the light of the ed if means of communication can course very doubtful, especially in

comprehensive survey which: you requirements. These measures be developed rapidly. It stands to China where administrative experien- reason of course that the Govern-ce is lacking and other internal dif- should result in a better balance (Mr. Chairman) have so ably pre- ment will gladly avail themselves of sounder and more economical finance as soon as it is available.

As regards the trade situation in China, the most significant change is that to be noted in the

ficulties abound.

between imports and exports, but there are no indications of any serious check in the expansion of trade throughout the present year. Malaya Prospects

sented to us in relation to matters economical and political, the trend of which have such sharp reaction upon the conditions of trading en- countered by the Bank in its vari- ous spheres of operation. For

More Promising Outlook The import figures which I have given might not seem to warrant much optimism, especially as an analysis shows that in many cases) In Malaya, as in China, trade your informative and heartening Customs figures of the export where progress can be traced it began to look up in the second address; I tender you our sincere

because of thanks.

two

trade which last year amounted to

was due to purchases on account half of 1936, mainly $706 millions. This is 22% high-

of the Chinese Government. Never- the better demand for the

"Giants In The Land” er than the year before and, ex-theless it is clear that far the chief products-tin and rubber. Turning to the financial results cluding Manchuria, the best result

larger part of the drop in imports Prices have been at remunerative for the year under review, I am shown since 1931. Imports in-

was in those goods which China levels for producers, and the pros- confident I voice the unanimous creased $22 millions in value, but

is. well able to, and now is, pro-pects for the present year are desire of constituents in proffer- this improvement was entirely due to the higher rate of the C.G.Uies, namely rice and wheat, raw

ducing herself in larger quantit-promising.

ing the Court of Directors, and In the Philippine Islands politi in particular to Mr. Grayburn, in terms of Chinese dollars, which cotton and cheap cotton goods cal conditions have been normal, our Chief Manager, and to those averaged $2.26 in. 1936 as against (imports of the latter are inciden- and the business community feel able colleagues who have worked $1.86 in 1935. In terms of C.G.U.tally at their lowest point for a confident that they will be able to in collaboration with him, our imports actually show a reduction || great many years). The effect operate without legislative intercongratulations on the excellence

of 85 millions of G.U...

Trade Balance

of the improvement in the internal ference. The boom in gold min-of the results achieved as evidenc situation was only just beginning ing has been coupled with higher ed by the Accounts with which we to be felt at the end of the year, prices for the main local com- are again presented. I would add, The adverse trade balance was but import merchants are general-modities, such as sugar, copra, and "Verily there are still giants in just under $236 millions, which is y agreed that the outlook is now hemp, and as a result the export the land." the lowest figure since 1919 when more promising.

figures have increased consider Mr. Chairman you have stated China exchange was almost at its I have referred to the good crops ably, while the financial position to-day that it is the desire of the peak and it compares surprising-in China during the past year and of the Government has also im-Bank to work for a steady expan ly with the figure of $1,087 mil to the improved position of the ex-proved. Increased taxation 0nsion of trade, and British - trade lions in 1931 when exchange was port trade, but when we turn to the production of mines and on in particular, in the countries at its lowest point. Any estimate Manchuria, China's figures lose by corporates incomes may affect the within which the Bank operates. of the international balance of comparison. Up there exports importation of foreign capital, but In so far as this Colony is con- payments must, in view of the con- have increased no less than 42% the outlook is, generally speaking cerned and speaking from per tinued lack of reliable statistics, compared with the previous year, good. remain highly uncertain, but the and the total exports from Man-

sonal experience I would affirm Not Safe To Prophesy that the sympathetic attitude of improved conditions in Malaya, churia are within 20% of those of In conclusion, may I just re-the Bank to-traders and corpora- the PL's and the N. E. Indies are China. This improvement is main-mind you that in times of diffi-tions alike, covering the past years likely to affect remittances from ly due to the better prices ob-culty wide differences of opinion of severe depression, to which you overseas Chinese favourably, and tained for Beans and Bean the balance may well prove to be ducts which actually provide not cles, and more especially do ban-marked. Moreover, it has been

pro are to be expected in business cir- make reference, has been ind

far short of half of the total ex-kers and their constituents find sympathy of a degree not bounded but

in China's favour.

During the early part of the ports. Imports improved by 14% paints of disagreement. It must by verbal expression alche, year trade conditions did not ap and the foreign trade total of be remembered that the last few endorsed by the co-operation, and pear to warrant any optimism ex-about M. Y. 1289 million is an easy years have been an exceptionally active assistance, of the officials cept as regards certain expert all-time record. The adverse trying and uncertain period. The of the Bank In this relation, I commodities in which

America trade balance was last year reduc-world is now emerging from its may add, many concerns which was taking an interest, particular-ed

siderably, but it is clear difficulties." Some countries have have, with the aid of the Bank, ly wood-oil, but towards the au- that Japan which is responsible come through better than others, emerged through stormy times of tumn a definite change became ap- for about two-thirds of Manchu and the Far East has come a severity likely to have swamy- parent. The demand for Chinese kuo's trade is still furnishing ex- through better than many parts ed them, bear gratitude. produce remained steady and, add- tensive credits to that country. On the whole the outlook" is rea- ed to this, the effect of the good Internal conditions have improy-sonably bright, but it is not safe

Canton · Understanding crops, to which I have already re-ed, but no noticeable benefit has to prophesy what the future holds It is observed that close ferred, began to make itself felt. yet accrued to European or Ameri- in store. For ourselves, our de-operation between Canton

can exporters, and a foreign ex-aire and our duty is by collabora-Hong Kong is looked forward change control law has increased tion with those of like mind, whe-and I am confident that Share

ther în China: or in the other holders heartily endorse your hope countries in which we operate, to that the foundation laid by His work for a

expansion of Excellency Sir Andrew Caldecott, and more.es-on the occasion of his visit

while Canton wi under the present en

Bumper Crops

In many parts there were in traders' dificulties. fact bumper crops. In the Yang-

the rice yields were

And good and have been

Situation In Japan

The situation in Japan does not internationa timated as 30 to 40% above the on the face of it make for optim-pecially of

fair,

struct

The wheat crop, ism and persons trained in econo- continually aiming. upholding lightened out. 500 million picula mics are making the gloomiest the world-wide prestige of Brit-City, nough not up to the of forecasts as to the outcome of fish Ban

The cotton crop the political, fmancial; and trade With

by a good mar-} situation as it exists et present. ger

It is impossible to foretell how

duction is ext

about 141/2 mil political situation will develop,

is but we hope for the best.

133 be

of

been

ladi and

the Ac- After adv

course

inued on Page 1).