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7. It might be of interest to compare this figure with those derived from calculations based upon the birth-and death-rates for the census year 1931. Assuming that these rates proved constant—an unwarranted assumption in point of fact—the 1938 population calculated on the birth-rate would number 1,185,700, while that on a similar death-rate would amount to 1,152,500. It is unnecessary to point out the fallacy of such method in view of the peculiar circumstances prevailing.
8. Another method suggested by the Statistician Major P. Granville Edge, O.B.E. would be to take the ratio of school children to population in the census year and, knowing the number of school children in 1938, to base the calculation on the understanding that the ratio would remain constant. A figure of 1,561,229 is obtained in this way but is liable to somewhat wide error in view of the fact that, with minor exceptions, the vast proportion of the refugees belonged to the lowest economic class who are unable to take advantage of schools—free education being practically unknown as yet in Hong Kong. Yet another method also suggested by the same learned authority would be to base the calculation on the amount of water used per capita assuming the ratio in a census year to be the same as in 1938. On this basis, the estimated population in the year under review would amount to 1,500,216. However, this calculation is completely vitiated by the fact that the year was so abnormally dry as to make it necessary for very rigid restrictions to be placed upon the draw off both in dwellings and at the public standpipes.
9. Reference has already been made in another portion of this Report to the serious overcrowding of tenements and to the fact that the normal counts of persons per floor has risen from about seventeen-twenty to as high as sixty. In other words, the particular section of the population living in tenements has increased three-fold. Although it forms a large proportion of the total population, it would hardly be fair to assume that the population as a whole had been multiplied thrice.
10. Similar calculations determined by the normal house population in, say, 1931 and by the increase in house property in the intervening period are obviously vitiated by reason of the overcrowding factor in respect of individual houses.
11. From the foregoing it will have been appreciated that a very real difficulty exists in determining at all accurately the present population of these territories, and, hence in calculating birth-and-death-rates.
12. To meet this situation, it has been decided to calculate rates upon three premises firstly, according to the population ascertained on the normal rate of increase prevailing in an intercensal period*, secondly, on the addition of a very approximate figure representing the surplus of immigrants over emigrants during the period July 1st, 1937 to June 30th, 1938, amounting to 200,000; and, thirdly, by assuming that the birth-rate in the year under review was the same as in the census year 1931 for which an accurate population figure is obtainable. For ease of reference, these three rates will be described as A, B, C respectively.
13. Nearly ninety-eight per centum of the population belong to the Chinese race.
14.
Table II gives particulars of the population based on method A detailed above arranged on a geographical basis. A figure of 100,000 being added as representing the maritime population which was not accurately determined in 1931.
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7. It might be of interest to compare this figure with those derived from calculations based upon the birth-and death-rates for the census year 1931. Assuming that these rates proved constant-an unwarranted assumption in point of fact the 1938 population calculated on the birth-rate would number 1,185,700, while that on a similar death-rate would amount to 1,152,500. It is unnecessary to point out the fallacy of such method in view of the peculiar circumstances prevailing.
8. Another method suggested by the Statistician Major P. Granville Edge, O.B.E. would be to take the ratio of school children to population in the census year and, knowing the number of school children in 1938, to base the calculation on the understanding that the ratio would remain constant. A figure of 1,561,229 is obtained in this way but is liable to somewhat wide error in view of the fact that, with minor exceptions, the vast proportion of the refugees belonged to the lowest economic class who are unable to take advantage of schools-free education being practically unknown as yet in Hong Kong. Yet another method also suggested by the same learned authority would be to base the calculation on the amount of water used per capita assuming the ratio in a census year to be the same as in 1938. On this basis, the estimated population in the year under review would amount to 1,500,216. However, this calculation is completely vitiated by the fact that the year was so abnormally dry as to make it necessary for very rigid restrictions to be placed upon the draw off both in dwellings and at the public standpipes.
9. Reference has already been made in another portion of this Report to the serious overcrowding of tenements and to the fact that the normal counts of persons per floor has risen from about seventeen-twenty to as high as sixty. In other words, the particular section of the population living in tenements has increased three-fold. Although it forms a large proportion of the total population, it would hardly be fair to assume that the population as a whole had been multiplied thrice.
10. Similar calculations determined by the normal house population in, say, 1931 and by the increase in house property in the intervening period are obviously vitiated by reason of the overcrowding factor in respect of individual houses.
11. From the foregoing it will have been appreciated that a very real difficulty exists in determining at all accurately the present population of these territories, and, hence in calculating birth-and-death-rates.
12. To meet this situation, it has been decided to calculate rates upon three premises firstly, according to the population ascertained on the normal rate of increase prevailing in an intercensal period*, secondly, on the addition of a very approximate figure representing the surplus of immigrants over emigrants during the period July 1st, 1937 to June 30th, 1938, amounting to 200,000; and, thirdly, by assuming that the birth-rate in the year under review was the same as in the census year 1931 for which an accurate population figure is obtainable. For ease of reference, these three rates will be described as A, B, C respectively.
race.
13. Nearly ninety-eight per centum of the population belong to the Chinese
14.
Table II gives particulars of the population based on method A detailed above arranged on a geographical basis.
a figure of 100,000 being added as representing the maritime population which was not accurately
determined in 1931.
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