Appendix E.
REPORT OF THE DIRECTOR OF THE OBSERVATORY FOR THE YEAR 1911.
The comparison of weather-forecasts issued daily with the weather subsequently experienced has been conducted on the same system as heretofore (compare Annual Report for 1896 § 5). The results are as follows:-
Success 55 per cent., partial success 32 per cent., failure 2 per cent., partial failure 11 per cent. Following the method used in Meteorological Offices, and taking the sum of total and partial success as a measure of success and the sum of total and partial failure as a measure of failure, 87 per cent. of the weather-forecasts were successful in 1911.
The average results for the four preceding years were as follows:---
Success 58 per cent., partial success 32 per cent., failure 1 per cent., partial failure 9 per cent.
2. In general the typhoons of 1911 took a more Northerly course than usual, and in contrast to the year 1910 it is noteworthy that, with the exception of a typhoon which reached Tongking to the South of Haiphong on 21st September, and a depression, of little importance, which entered Annam near Tourane on August 23rd, not a single typhoon crossed the China Sea to the Southward of the 18th parallel. The Western side of the China Sea was thus almost entirely free of these disturbances in 1911, and Annam, which was devastated by typhoons in 1910, was not visited by a hurricane during the year under notice.
Three severe gales, due to typhoons, were felt in Hongkong, the first on July 3rd to 4th, when the squalls reached a maximum velocity at the rate of 73 miles per hour, as recorded by the pressure-tube Anemograph; the second on July 27th when squalls up to a velocity of 74 miles were registered; and the third on August 3rd to 6th when the maximum velocity in the squalls reached 79 miles.
The centre of the typhoon of July 27th passed between Hong-kong and Gap Rock, but fortunately the disturbance was not of great depth. That of August 3rd to 6th, which entered the coast on the afternoon of the 5th a few miles to the West of Macao, was remarkable for the slow speed at which it moved between the 3rd and 5th, the average speed during this period being under 5 miles per hour. Between noon of the 4th and 5th, its rate of progression was only 3 miles per hour.
The paths of these disturbances are shown in the "Typhoon Tracks of 1911" which have been laid down by Miss Doberck. They will be published and distributed as soon as possible.
Appendix E.
REPORT OF THE DIRECTOR OF THE OBSERVATORY FOR THE YEAR 1911.
The comparison of weather-forecasts issued daily with the weather subsequently experienced has been conducted on the same system as heretofore (compare Annual Report for 1896 § 5). The results are as follows:-
Success 55 per cent., partial success 32 per cent., failure 2 per cent., partial failure 11 per cent. Following the method used in Meteorological Offices, and taking the sum of total and partial success as a measure of success and the sum of total and partial failure as a measure of failure, 87 per cent. of the weather-forecasts were successful in 1911.
The average results for the four preceding years were as follows:---
Success 58 per cent., partial success 32 per cent., failure 1 per cent., partial failure 9 per cent.
2. In general the typhoons of 1911 took a more Northerly course than usual, and in contrast to the year 1910 it is noteworthy that, with the exception of a typhoon which reached Tongking to the South of Haiphong on 21st September, and a depression, of little importance, which entered Annam near Tourane on August 23rd, not a single typhoon crossed the China Sea to the Southward of the 18th parallel. The Western side of the China Sea was thus almost entirely free of these disturbances in 1911, and Annam, which was devastated by typhoons in 1910, was not visited by a hurricane during the year under notice.
Three severe gales, due to typhoons, were felt in Hongkong, the first on July 3rd to 4th, when the squalls reached a maximum velocity at the rate of 73 miles per hour, as recorded by the pressure- tube Anemograph; the second on July 27th when squalls up to a velocity of 74 miles were registered; and the third on August 3rd to 6th when the maximum velocity in the squalls reached 79 miles.
The centre of the typhoon of July 27th passed between Hong- kong and Gap Rock, but fortunately the disturbance was not of great depth. That of August 3rd to 6th, which entered the coast on the afternoon of the 5th a few miles to the West of Macao, was remarkable for the slow speed at which it moved between the 3rd and 5th, the average speed during this period being under 5 miles per hour. Between noon of the 4th and 5th, its rate of progression was only 3 miles per hour.
The paths of these disturbances are shown in the "Typhoon Tracks of 1911" which have been laid down by Miss Doberck. They will be published and distributed as soon as possible.
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