CO885-(6-7) — Page 351

143

350

[Continued.

PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE

Reference -

TILEC.O. 885

6

ALLY WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE BE REPRODUCED PHOTOGRAPHIC-

COPYRIGHT PHOTOGRAPH—NOT TO

PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE, LONDON

30 November 1896.]

Chairman-continued.

Mr. LAMB.

greatly reduced rate, except in Queensland, the business there is not so expansive as it is in Western Australin.

2281. Are you aware that, putting Western Australia out of the ease altogether, the increase last year for the rest of the Australasian Colo- nies was 20 per cent ?—Yes, I know it was about. that.

2282. Do you regard that as normal? No, I am afraid I do not.

2283. I think you would find the average, if you examined it, to be something like 14 or 15 per cent. over the last 10 years. Is that what you believe to be about the case?-I see that the increases in the total traffic were as follows for a certain number of years. In 1890 over 1889, 4×20; in 1891 over 1890, 34-28; the next year. 1895 : this was at the time of the reduction of tariff and the financial disturbances, Then in the next year an increase of 6-05; in the next year a decrease of 5-57, and I am afraid, from my experience of fluctuations in traffic, you cannot, looking to the future, be quite sure that your traffic is going to increase at an average rate which you take over past years.

Of course, this is a matter of prudence; it might turn out that your fears were groundless, but in making an estimate and looking at the thing all round, I do not think you would be safe in taking more than 7 per cent.

22×4. As the share of the Pacific Cable?— Yes.

2285. It is a very remarkable increase, is it not, that of Australia, without West Australia, of 20 per cent. in one year, when you consider what a great crisis Australia is only now emerging from-I think you ought to consider in con- nection with that the previous decrease of 5:57.

2286. We had here last Thursday represen tatives of the Eastern Extension Telegraph Company; I think you heard their evidence? Yes.

2287. You will remember that they were prepared to admit and assume absolutely that the probable rate of increment in their business would not be less than 10 per cent.?--I think it is a sanguine estimate.

2288. You think that is a sanguine estimate? -Ye-. I do.

as

2289. Assuming that that estimate on their pirt was a sound one, it points to a very great increase in their business in the course of the next 10 or 20 years, does it not?—Yes, it does. But there is one thing to be remembered in this question of annual increase ; 7 per cent. the years go on every year means a larger yun). If in one year it means an increase of 10,000, in the next year it means much more, and so on, and we in the Post Office are always inclined to caution in making estimates of a steady increase at a particular rate, because of that very fact, that patent fact, that as you go on your increase at a percentage rate is so much larger an incrense.

Mr. Gillies.

2290. It becomes enormous? It becomes enormous. I do not know whether you would

Mr. Gillies-continued.

[Continued.

like no to go through some of our Post Office experiences !

Chairman.

2291. Yes, I should, certainly.—Well, I have got actual figures for certain things, but I will now give you something which has not yet been recorded, and I can only give it you in round figures. Our increase in telegrams last financial year was more than 10 per cent over the pre- vious year, but this financial year, if we find that we have barely hold our own we shall feel that we

are fairly well off. We are now only barely holding our own: that is to say, that 10 per cent. inercase is being merely maintained, and at the end of the year, if the business pro- reeds as it is at present, we expect to find that there is practically no increase again.

Mr. Gillies.

2292. No increase over the previous year?— No increase over the previous 10 per cent: in other words, we expect to find that the business of the year ending 31st March 1897 will be practically the same as the business of the year ending 31st March 1896.

Chairman.

2293. But that would have maintained for two years successively an increase of 10 per cent, over the business of the year ending 31st March 18957 --Quite so, but the average rate for the two years you see is certainly not 19 per cent. The in- formation that your Lordship thought I might give is as follows : −In 18891 the rate for telegrams between France and England was reduced from 2ịd. to 2d. There was an increase in the number of messages the following year of 11 per cent.; the next year, 3-8 per cent.; the next year, a decrease of 14; then a decrease of 8-9 ; then a decrease of 299; then an increase of 82; and in the year ended 31st March last there was an increase of 195, Since then there has been considerable decrease, but I am not in a position to give the figures, because they are not made up yet, but I know from observation ; every week the state of the business is brought to me, and I know from weekly returns that the messages to France are decreasing. I know that that great increase of 1955 was largely due to the cause that you have suggested.

A

Mr. Gillies.

2294. Mining investments of various kinels ?-- Yes. Many of these mining companies were quoted for the first time on foreign bourses in that year.

Mr. Murray.

I

2295. Would the statistics of the words give you much the same result as that? Yes. have not exact figures, but the number of words in a message to France has not varied much in recent years.

30 November 1896.]

Mr. Jones.

Mr. LAMB.

2206. What do you estimate the number of letters to a word now ?-In the traffic to France I have not made an estimate. The number of words in a message is about 11, but I have not estimated the number of letters.

Chairman.

2297. Have you any other figures to give us-In 1889 (the same year, the rate for telegrains between England and Holland was reduced from 3d. to 27. ; that is a greater reduc- tion. There was an increase in the number of messages the following year of 12 per cent. : next year, 67% ; next, 128; next year a decrease of 195

next, an increase of 8-3: next a decrease of 31; and in the last financial year 21 in- crease of 7, In the case of Anglo-Belgian telegrams, there was no reduction of charge in the year that we have spoken of That is the year when the cables were transferred to the Governments. In the first year after the trau~- fer there was an increase of 9 per cent,; in the next, 17; in the next, 16; in the next, 29; in the next an increase of 1; in the next an in- crease of 85 ; and in the last financial year an increase of 1995. Taking the three cases, the luctuations of traffic were evidently not always governed by a reduction of rate, because there was no reduction in the Belgian cause. Probably they were alway- a goal deal governed by the state of trade, and by the efficiency of the service. There can be no doubt that the important in- ercase in all three cases in 1890 was largely due to the latter cause; the inercases were. France, and 11 per cent. Holland. 12 per cent.; Belgium, 9 per cent.

2298. Is the rate of increase likely to be more or less to an undeveloped country, like Australia ur Amerien, than in the case of a fully developed country, like France or Germany, or Belgium? -I think, given the same conditions of distance and price and communication, there would be more scope for an increase in an undeveloped country than in an old country, but I am afraid there is at a comparision between Australasia and these neighbouring countries on the Con- tinent, because to these neighbouring countries the rate is so low that you get a birge constant Communication, both domestic and commercial, that you could 11 expect with a distant

country.

2299. Can you offer any opinion to the Com- mittee as to the probable or improbable creation of a telegraphic business between America and Australia ei a Pacific Cable?—I think it prob- able that there would be a development in the business between the United States and Australasia. I have got some information for the month of September last, and I find that out of 680 messages between Australasia and America there

and from Canada, four to and from the West Indies, and the rest of the messages, about 641 messages, to and from the United States.

I think it pro- bable that that 641 might develop into something

more.

35

to

Mr. Jones.

2300. That is for one month?—That is only for one month.

Chairman.

2301. Can you make any estimate to the Com- mittee of the additional income that a Pacific Cable would get from fresh American traffic?— I am not prepared to give an estimate in detail. In a case like this a man approaching it from the point of view of an administrator must take many things into consideration, and he can only give on the whole view of the question a general estimate.

2302. Am I 6. take your estimate, 46,5007, as the total revenue that such a cable would possess in its first year, or have you anything to add to that for traffic elsewhere?—No; 1 give that as an estimate of traffic from all sources, and, of course, it is possible that in the first year the cable might he get exactly that amount in another year it might get much mure and 7 per cent. besides, but in mother year it might be broken down for half a year, and then it would lose the whole of its traffic for that time and would have a very uphill fight to get its traffic back again. It is taking everything into con- sùleration, and looking at the thing from the point of view of average, and spreading the average over the whole time, that I give this

estimate of 46,5007.

Mr. Jones.

2303. That is at Is, 6d, a word not to the Com- pany-At 1s. 6d., and 7 per cent. over the whole period. And there again, when you are considering the 7 per cent., you must take into account the possibility of breakage and entire luss of traffic. You night criticise that 7 per cent, with reference to past increases in Australia, but when I say 7 per cent,, and when I say 46.500. I take into account all the risks and the possibility that in certain long periods you might lose the whole of your traffic, and what I say is, that from the point of view of an administrator, and looking at it prudently, I do not think that on a review of the whole question you could assume a higher revenue than 46,5007. on the basis of 1s. Gil, a word, or a higher increase per amum than 7 per cent.

2304. Now will you coure to the expenditure ? -I do not know whether before you go to that you would like any particulars about our inland service here. I have given you particulars about Anglo-Continental messages; I do not know whether would consider it to be of any use.

you

Mr. Gillies.

2305. You mean as to a percentage increase of business?—Yes. If so, I can give them.

Mr. Jones,

2306–7. It would not bear very much 1⁄2-1 o not urge it myself in any way.

S4

144