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298

12 November 1896.]

Mr. FLEMING, C.M.G., C.E.

Mr. Gillies-continued. 182. Yes; well, that is a speculation. May I ask whether you have considered the question, in speaking about the increased volume of business that continues year by year,-it ever is likely to arrive at a point when, from the nature of the business and the size of the population, that that cau never alter. Is it to go on year by year increasing in the ratio of 14 per cent. without any known limitation ?- Well, in answer to that question I submit to you some figures that I looked up last night, The and they were very marvellous to me. number of words sent in 1875 was 235,160.

Chairman.

That

183. Sent by-?-Sent over the cable be- tween Anstralasia and England, or Europe, for there may be a few cablegrams between other parts of Europe and Australasia; in 1880, 353,348; in 1885, 537,355; in 1890, 827,278; in 1895, 1,948,369 words. shows an actual increase in the various five- year periods which I have referred to of 118,188 for the first five years, 184,007 for the second, and of 289,923 increase for the third five- yearly period; and for the last of 1,121,091, giving a yearly increase during these various five-year periods of the following: 23,637 the first; 36,801 the second; 57,985 the third; and 224,218 the fourth and the last. The 224,218 I should remark was during the period when the charges for telegraphy were very much reduced. The first three were when the price was 9. id. a word; the price was lowered on the 1st May 1891 from 9s. 4d. to 4s. That was Boon after the last five-year period began, During that five-year period the yearly increase has averaged 224,218 in place of 58,000 pre- viously; and I have no reason to think that the average annual increase will be diminished in the next five-yearly period, or in the succeeding five- yearly period.

Mr. Gillies.

184. Well, but that does not exactly touch Do you contemplate or have the point I raised. you thought over-do you contemplate that there is to be any limitation to this annual increase? -I think it is not likely to be reached for some time.

185. You think there is not ?-When the population of Australasia reaches four or five times what it is now, is it probable? There may indeed be a greater increase, and from what I have seen in Australia myself there is very large room for an increase in the population.

186. Oh, yes, there is no question about that at all, but whether the volume of traffic will continue unless something big happens, that the two companies would get a living, and that the receipts will be so much straight-off, struck me as somewhat dogmatical unless there were some strong reasons for it.-Well, I must say that I do not think I have over-estimated at all. During the last 20 years the average in- crease has been 36'4 per cent., and I have not taken very much more than the half of that; not so much as the half of that indeed, as the normal increase in my calculation.

Mr. Gillies-continued.

[Continued.

187. And you think it is not unreasonable to expect that you will absolutely be able as soon as you start the company to get away half the business from the existing holders ?—It is a safe estimate so far as the Pacific cable is concerned, because we have the yet undeveloped traffic be tween North America and Australia to be added to the span of European business.

188. Do you know what proportion of the traffic? I might call your attention to the fact that it was contemplated in the event of certain class of tenders being sent in, answer would to be charged for be made stating the rate messages from Australasia to Europe. That was because I suppose it was to be done by a private company, and of course it would require to be a condition with the private company that any of the telegrams sent from Australasia would be sent through Vancouver to England? I am afraid I do not understand the question.

"

189. If you look at the stipulation for a class of tenders to be sent in you will find that that is the It is not merely to Vancouver, but it condition. is to England and Europe. The maximum rates to be charged for messages to and from Great "The Britain and the Australasian Colonies: "rates to be charged for the transmission of "messages to and from Great Britain and the Australasian Colonies shall be as follows." Of course the company under one of the condi- tions of tendering would be formed for its own advantage, and it was proposing to construct a cable, and it was anticipated that they would get some guarantee on the part of the Government or some bonus. Under those circumstances part of the through route would belong to other com- panies, requiring special arrangements : they would get no business if a message was for England unless it was carried on, and so they were to charge so much, including the whole distance, and that the second distance would be a charge proportionate to the first distance? There were no tenders received under these forms.

for

190. No, no tenders received on this form of conditions at all?-None on forms B. and C.

191. But, I assume that you contemplate that this cable shall not only carry the messages to Vancouver, but arrangements will be eo made as that the messages shall be carried to England, and if necessary shall be carried to other parts of Europe than England. I suppose that is contemplated, because your charge is 21. a word, and it is 3. to England ?-Yes, there will be no difficulty in arranging that. There are two great telegraph companies terminating at Van- couver, and the one is competing with the other.

192. But I suppose it will be a sine quâ non that it would be arranged for, so that these position to stop companies should not be in a

you at the end of your cable ?—Yes; but as a matter of fact there would be no difficulty in arranging with one or the other, on very accept- able terms.

193. Well, when you say 3.., is that a sum that you arrive at from absolute experience?—Oh, that of course is an estimated amount, and I think it is quite enough, and I think 2. for

12 November 1896.]

Mr. Gillies--continued.

Mr. FLEMING, C.M.G., C.E.

the cable which is to cross the Pacific would be a fair proportion for that part of the telegraph, and 1s. from Vancouver to England a fair allowance for the other part. Arrangements would of course require to be made with the Telegraph Company or Telegraph Companies from Vancouver to England, and I do not see that there would be any difficulty in making arrangements to do the work for 1s. a word.

194. At any rate it would be one of the things that would necessitate an arrangement? would have to be done, yes.

195. Because you would lose nearly all your trade if you did not make that arrangement? Yes; but it would be to the advantage of the Telegraph Companies to effect such an arrange-

ment.

196. That is the old telegraph companies ?— The old telegraph companies; I mean the telegraph company from Vancouver. All the business brought from Australia would be some- thing in addition to what they have now; they are only too glad always to increase their

business.

197. Do you contemplate that you would get any considerable business to other parts of Europe in addition to England?—I do not know; not more than now.

198. Not more; I was not putting it in the way of more.. Well, you misunderstood me. I do not know what proportion of the European business goes to parts of Europe other than England. My impression is, and I think I shall be sustained by facts, that the greater portion of it comes to England.

199. Well, naturally of course the greatest proportion does, but you do not know what pro- portion there is of messages from certain parts of Europe other than England that go to Austral- asia?—I do not know the proportion.

200. But that is covered by the total number of words that are eent in these returns, is it not? -Yes, it is.

201. It includes Europe ?— It includes Europe. 202. Well, do you mean to say

that you

have not thought of getting information as to what proportion of those words that are now sent every year? Yes; I mean to say that I did not think at all necessary.

203. But do you not think it is a very con- siderable element ?-Well, it may be. Certainly it is not for me to inquire into everything.

204. But if it is a large element in the calcula- tion; suppose, now, that it would be; well, there might be 200,000 or 300,000 words? Well, I do not know what it is, and it did not appear to me to signify what it was. I did not and I do not now consider that it forms a very large propor- tion of the whole amount.

205. Of course if vou do no business with Europe, except England, that may make a con- siderable difference; I do not know how much it does make, but there is the whole of Europe open?-As far as this matter goes, sir, I look upon London as the centre of Europe; as far as this particular matter goes, I look upon London as the great objective point for telegraph mes sages from Australasia, I look upon London, this city we are in now, as the chief point.

[Continued.

Mr. Gillies-continued. 206. Yes, I always understood that it was a matter of great importance for companies to con- sider when they were laying lines to go on routes where there would be traffic ?-Well, I think so too, and think there is a great deal, a vast amount, of ready-made traffic for the Pacific Cable between Australasia and London, a vast amount.

207. On what lines ?-Any lines you choose to lay a telegraph on; on the line of the Pacific Cable, for example.

208. For instance, what places. The line from Australasia goes to Vancouver?—Yes.

209. Well, what places on that route will they expect local traffic?-Oh, I was speaking of through traffic. I say the ready-made through traffic.

210. Yes, of course, if you take all the trailic from the Eastern Company that is now running that is perfectly plain?—I do not propose to take it all, nor do I wish to take it all. I think a share of it, a large share of it, possibly one-half of it, may come this way; if not quite half, the half would certainly be made up by the develop. ment of the traffic between North America and Australia.

211. That is, we have got no information on that point; unfortunately, of course, it would be very difficult to obtain any.—Oh, we can have none because it is all in the future, but we have excel- lent information with regard to the existing traffic between Australasia and London.

212. Well, of course, it is all indicated by what comes from the hands of the existing company? -Yes.

Sir Donald Smith,

213. Your questions, Lord Selborne, are so much to the point, and the matter has been thrashed out so very well by Mr. Gillies, that I have very little indeed to say. But with reference to the tenders, I would like to ask Mr. Fleming what information or what data the firms tendering had in making up their tenders? -There were certain papers published and re- ferred to in the advertisement which appeared in the London newspapers.

I have got a copy

of these papers somewhere with me, at least at my hotel, and I shall be very glad to bring them when required. There may be a copy here.

Chairman,

I

214. The tenders are here. And the papers that were accessible to intending tenderers. have a portion of them before me at page 213, but not all, I think.

Sir Donald Smith,

215. Do you think the information they had as regarded the work for which they tendered was such as tenderers for ordinary contracts would have been contented with in making an actual tender?-Well, I am inclined to think so from the fact that they did tender. All the cable-manufacturing companies in the world did not tender, but some of them in London here, some of the oldest and some of the best, did

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