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III. Location of Terminus on Lake Nyasa.

While Pagonas has been selected as the lake terminus by the Consulting Engineers for the reasons quoted above, attention is invited to the following remarks made by Mr. H. Wilson Fox, M.P., in the course of a lecture on "The Cape-to-Cairo Railway and Train Ferries," read before the Geographical Society on 1st December, 1919 (Geographical Journal, February, 1920, page 80) :—

"The decision has been taken recently by the Colonial Office to extend immediately thie line northwards from Luchenza to Pagonas on the south-eastern shore of Lake Nyasa. At this point deep water can be reached by a pier. As, however, an extension of only three miles further would carry the railway to Malindi, where vessels of large size could lie in deep water against wharves constructed along the shore, and all the surroundings are suitable for the requirements of a busy commercial port, it may be hoped that the penny-wise-pound-foolish policy of terminating the line at Pagonas will be reconsidered.'

IV. Ag cultural Prospects and Population to be served by the Line.

13. For the first 60 miles from Luchenza the route lies across the Mlanje Plain, which is well-watered, has an annual rainfall of 30-50 ins., and is one of the most fertile plains in the Protectorate. Most of the land here is suitable for tobacco, maize and cotton, and a road of 20 miles would tap the extensive lands of the Fort Lister area, on which natives have grown cotton for some years (80-150 tons of need cotton annually according to a report of 1916). Similar land, much nearer to the railway, will be opened up near the Palombe River. The line crosses the A. L. Bruce estates, on which cotton has been cultivated on a large scale. Further on, tobacco has been grown successfully on the lands below Zomba. On this stretch there is little tsetse fly, and, with the possibility of a change of climate to the Mlanje or Zomba Plateaux, the district is suitable for Europeans. Much of the land either has a dense native population, or is close to densely populated areas.

14. From the Songani River to Chikala the land becomes lighter and is generally unsuit- able for cotton and tobacco, but produces maize, rice and millet for the consumption of a fairly dense native population largely employed in and around Zomba,

15. Beyond Chikala much land is suitable for cotton, &c., but water is scarce in the dry season. The rainfall, however, is sufficient, and much could be done by sinking wells and draining marsh land. Near and in Lake Pamalombe (now dry) there is a large quantity of excellent soil for maize, millet and cotton.

16. This stretch from Chikala to Pamalombe is well covered with wood for fuel purposes. Owing to tee-tse fly it is unsuitable for cattle, and is an area for native rather than European cultivation.

17. Onwards from Fort Johnston there is a considerable native population along the banks of the Shire.

18. Near Chikals, traffic would be received both from the cotton districts of Portuguese East Africa to the east and from the Zomba district to the west and south-west.

19. Apart from the land in the Mlanje Plain, it is estimated that the route will develop 85,000 acres of proved cotton land round Fort Lister and 86,000 acres of similar land near Lake Pamalombe.

20. On the question of population, the Governor, Sir George Smith, remarks that "the area tapped by the route is roughly 4,800 square miles, carrying a population of 230,000. The density of population varies from practically nothing to 230 to the square mile in the areas east of Chiradzulo and south and south-east of Zomba, both of which will be fully opened up by the route."

V. Alternative "Central Route."

21. As an alternative route for the establishment of railway communication with Lake Nyasa, it has been proposed that the Government should extend the Shire Highlands Railway from its terminus at Blantyre to the south-western arm of the lake. A petition in favour of the adoption of this "Central Route," instead of the "Eastern Route " described above, was received in 1916, signed by a number of leading company managers, plauters and merchants in the Protectorate, and at the same time a petition in the same senso was signed in this country on behalf of the British South Africa Co., the British Central Africa Ço., the British Cotton Growing Association, and a number of other leading companies interested in Nyasaland or North-Eastern Rhodesia.

22. Mr. Roy was thereupon instructed to examine the route, and reported strongly against it on engineering grounds. An economic report comparing the areas to be tapped by the two routes was prepared by the Director of Agriculture, and was also distinctly favourable to the eastern mute. The population which would be served is about the same by either route, In July, 1919, the Secretary of State after full consideration definitely decided upon the eastern route, and informed the leading companies of his decision; and no protest or further representa. tion has since been made to the Colonial Office, so that this controversy may be regarded as settled.

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23. It may be well, however, to refer here to two points connected with the "Central route" proposal, viz., the effect of the choice of the eastern route on the future development of North-Eastern Rhodesia, and the allegation of the Shire Highlands Railway Co. that the line from Luchenza will compete with their line and that its construction will thus be a viola. tion of their agreement.

VI. Development of N.E. Rhodesia.

24. Since the regions to the east of Lake Nyasa are in Portuguese territory, and can be served best from Port Amelia, it seems natural at first sight to develop the Nyasaland Railway towards the west of the lake with a view to ultimate extension into North-Eastern Rhodesia and beyond. Major Grogan has adopted this view in the map which he recently submitted to the Colonial Economic Development Committee, in connection with his memorandum on the princi ples of railway development in the central regions of Africa; and in conversation he has expressed the opinion that the choice of the "eastern route" is an instance of mistaken hand- to-mouth policy.

25. Mr. Roy's survey, however, does not support this contention. To commence with, an extension to Lake Nyasa will provide an outlet for North-Eastern Rhodesia by means of steamer services on the lake, and it will matter little whether the railway terminus is on the south-west or south-east arm of the lake. Later on, if it should be found desirable to extend the railway into North-Eastern Rhodesin itself, without utilising the lake, Mr. Roy concludes that the dis tance from Luchenza will be the same, whether the central route (modified as he considers necessary) is adopted, or whether the eastern route is now followed and a line afterwards carried westward from a suitable point upon it to join the central route at Kulanga. The total length of constructed line will in the latter case be about 50 miles more, but, as the extension to Fort Jameson could only be justified by the existence of a very heavy traffic, it is probable that the advantage of haulage over the easier eastern route would outweigh the disadvantage of extra capital cost. It may be pointed out that Mr. Roy does not seem to have considered the possibility of a shorter and more direct route from Blantyre to Fort Jameson through' Portuguese territory, which is apparently contemplated by Major Grogan.

26. Mr. Roy regarda it as more likely, however, that the requirements of North-Easteru Rhodesian traffic will be more suitably met by a steamer connection between Domira Bay and the railway terminus on the lake.

VII. Competition of Proposed Railway with Shire Highlands Railway,

27. The Shire Highlands Railway Company have represented that a line from Luchenza to Lake Nyasa, not passing through Blantyre, would be a competing line within the meaning of Clause 29 of the Agreement of 1902, which provides that "So long as the Company shall keep open and work the railway

no line of railway directly competing with the railway shall be constructed in the Protectorate during a period of 25 years.

As

28. The question is whether a railway following the eastern route would "directly com pete" with the Shire Highlands Railway. Pending the further development of the Shire High- land the effect of the adoption of the eastern route would certainly be to divert to the new railway a part of the traffic which now comes to stations on the Blantyre-Luchenza section of the Shire Highlands Railway, but, on the other hand, the company would profit by the carriage from Luchenza to Fort Herald of all the new traffic due to the construction of the new line. the distances are respectively 33 and 80 miles, the company would suffer no loss, even if traffic ceased entirely (which would certainly not be the case) between Blantyre and Luchenza, provided the increase of traffic below Luchenza amounted to 40 per cent. It may be confidently expected that the increase would very soon be much greater than 40 per cent.; if it were not, the new line would not be worth building.

29. The Shire Highlands Railway Company should, therefore, gain a very material ad- vantage by the construction of a line along the eastern route. It is not impossible that that advantage would be greater than if the central route were adopted, but that is not the point in connection with the question of competition.

30. If it is decided to proceed with construction along the eastern route and the company adheres to its contention, it will, apparently, be necessary to submit the matter to arbitration under Clause 53 of the 1902 Contract. Since, however, the Secretary of State on the information before him has decided that a railway along the central route would not be justified on the ground of engineering difficulties of construction and working, it may be hoped that the company will not press their objection to the adoption of the only other possible route.

31. It will, of course, be important to maintain friendly relations with the company with a view to the future working arrangements for through traffic. This will be facilitated by the fact that Mr. Roy is now General Manager of the Shire Highlands Railway,

VIII. Financial Prospects of the Proposed Line.

32. The reports indicate generally that the proposed railway will run through or near promising agricultural areas, some parts of which are already in course of development, and the line will also, on reaching Lake Nyasa, tap the traffic from around that lake. But no estimates of traffic, revenue, or working expenses appear to have been prepared up to the present

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* No. 9, page 74.

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