188
effect in the early spring of that same year, and the further decrease in 1908 appeared to be a continuation of good effects not the beginning of them.
26. A steady, rapid decline in deaths on the mainland was thus indicated, as opposed to a fluctuating but continued heavy mortality upon the islands. Hence the importance of evacuating the islands was urged upon the chiefs, and, as soon Had it been as their co-operation was assured, the exodus was accomplished. deferred for one more year, and the death returns for 1909 been available as a basis for judgment, it is very doubtful if it would ever have been carried out.
Table II.-Deaths from Sleeping Sickness in Buganda Province according to location of Sazas.
Island BasaË.
Mainland Bagan.
Interior Bassa.
Per ceni.
27.
189
Death Returns from the two Island Sazas.
In the accompanying Table III. and graph (II.††) the rise and fall of the epidemic in the two island sazas of Sesse and Buvuma is indicated as in Tables I. and II., and, in addition, an attempt has been made roughly to estimate the deaths per thousand population each year.
28. The main point which it is desired to bring out is that the death rate per thousand population was really falling almost as rapidly as the actual number of deaths. Such errors as there must be in calculations based on such unsatisfac- tory statistical data are, for the most part, in favour of an even more rapid decline than is indicated. For example, no allowance is made for any increase in population either naturally or by immigration, yet it is certain that both must have occurred, so that, although the figures for 1908 and 1909 must be considered as nearest the truth, they represent a decline from a higher altitude, and thereby a more rapid decline, than the graph or table indicates.
Table III.-Deaths from Sleeping Sickness on Sesse and Buvuma Islands.
Number of
Deaths.
Increase or Decrease Over Year Preceding.
Mumber of
Deathe.
Increase or Decrease Over Year Preceding.
Number of Deaths,
Increase or Decresas
over Year Preceding.
Per cent.
Per cent.
1900
5,926
2,504
1901
7,927
+ 33
2,762
+ 8
1902
20,999*
+62
3,096
+19
1903
7,723
64
5,168†
+41
48
1904
5,737
26
5,414‡
3
228
+79
1905
3,503
4,500
18
276
17
1906
1,719
3,585
513
+46**
1907
1,9920
1,4155
158
1908
1,173
550||
61
59
-70ft
61
1909
694
41
231||
56
1
98‡‡
Year.
1910
281
59¶
266
+ 189
8
+ 88
1911
151
46
102
6%
11*
+27
1912
36
77
46
-36
1918
23
36
34
87
1914
10
56
14
- 59
43 25
Estimated
Population.
Buvuma Islands.
Deaths by
Sleeping Sickness.
Increase or Decrease in
Number of Deathe
over Year Preceding.
Deaths per 1,000
Population.
Increase or Decrease
in Deaths per
1,000 Population over
Year Preceding.
Year.
Estimated
Population.
Deaths by
Sleeping Bickness.
Besoe Islands.
Increase or Decrease in
Number of Deaths
over Year Preceding.
Deaths per 1,000
Population.
Increase or Decrease
in Deaths per
1,000 Population over
Year
Preceding.
NOTES (apply equally to Chart I. §§).
* I cannot believe this figure to be reliable but can find no means of tracing possible error. The original returns appear to have been lost. In this connexion it ought to be noted that Buvuma suffered serious famine about this time.
as having been 80,441, but a + Deaths during 1908 are recorded for Buganda Province very palpable error in the original summing up of this total reduces the number by over 18,000, and, it is believed, that reduction by about 17,000 is nearer the truth. This correction is accepted in tabulating the returns.
Deaths on the mainland continued to increase in 1904 owing to the epidemic having spread into the western sazas of Buddu, Mawakota, and Busiro.
The number of deaths decreased notably on the mainland, but coincidentally increased on the islands. This is believed to be due, in part, to return of islanders temporarily resident on the mainland to their own country, when depopulation of mainland shore was undertaken. Haretofore deaths of islanders on the mainland were recorded from mainland Bas88. Hereafter deaths of islanders who had contracted infection on the mainland are recorded from the islands, or as islanders after their sasas were evacuated.
The mainland deaths are much smaller than the number upon the islands. This is in part due to the circumstances noted above. It is also largely due to the complement to con- ditions noted in 1, for by 1906 the epidemic had spread into, reached its climax, and begun to decline in, all the masas. More than to any one factor it is due to an enormous decrease in mortality in Busirs Baza (including Entebbe) which took place in 1907, and appears to be due to general prophylactic measures focal clearings, regulations concerning management of markets, employment of porters, location of porters' camps, etc., etc. These local measures were put into effect in 1906, and the death roll dropped in 1907 from 1,008 to 72 or by 98 per cent.
After the islands were depopulated in 1909 deaths among the islanders were supposed to be returned separately-but this appears not to have been done in all cases and deaths of main- landers who were resident upon the islands in 1909 were in all cases reported from the mainland saras subsequently.
As a result there is a sudden drop in number of deaths recorded as occurring amongst islanders in 1910, and before depopulation could be expected to have any real effect upon mor tality and this is accompanied (as in the similar case noted in 14, but conversely) by a sudden increase in number of deaths recorded from the mainland.
**The deaths in the interior sasas were all, so far as known, amongst natives coming from, or who had visited, the lake shore. The climax was reached in 1908, two years after the climax of the epidemic in the sazas bordering the lake shore. This is as it should be, allowing for a lapse of from eighteen months to two years following infection and before death, because the greatest danger of infection was in 1904, when the epidemic was raging in all of the memo TEMË: had just assumed really serious proportions in the two westernmost (see Table VIII.).
The deaths in interior sasas fell off enormously in 1907, well in advance of the time
whan depopulation of the mainland could have had much effect.
1 Deaths in inland sazar had fallen to practically nothing before the islands were depopu lated, indicating that there was no danger to be apprehended of infection contracted from islanders.
Not reproduced.
Per cent.
Per cent.
Per cent.
Per cent
1900 66,322
5,187
91
1900
23,166
789
1901 51,185 6,874
+25
134
+32
1901
22,377 1,048
1902
44,31119,040†
+ 70
428
+ 70
1909
21,329 1,950
+ 25 +46
1903
25,262
5,174
-73
205
-52
1903 19,379
2,5491
132
1904
20,088
3,508
32
175
- 15
1904
16,830
2,238
12
1339
1905
16,585
2,585
---26
155
- 11
1905
14,596
918
58
1906
14,000
1,001
61
71
54
1906 13,578
718
22
1907
12,981-
1,314
+92
99
+ 28
1907
12,960
678
4
1908
11,667
667
49
55
44
1908 12,282
506
25
1909
11,000
258
61
28
58 1909
11,776
436
14
37
1910
98
64
8
65
1910
188
57**
10
1911
28
6
25
1911
84
55**
25
63
2
66
1912
11
87
1918 1914
40 73
1
- 50
1913
8
27
1914
7
- 50
វគ្គថ្មីគឺគer | |
.....................1++++
+27
+ 48
+31
18
- 53
21¶
10
56
56
86
30
1912
++ Not raproduced.
* The Bavuma were an extremely prolific people, and the Basease, unlike the Baganda, are
said to have been rapidly increasing.
NOTES (referring also to Charts II. and III.††).
↑ Believed to be far too high-if so the figures for population, etc., are also far from the truth. The epidemic was declining in Buvums before its climax was reached in Sesse-due to its having spread first to the northern and later to the southern group of Besse Islands.
In 1904 and 1907 in Bosse the reduced number of deaths appears not to have been due to any decrease in the virulence of the epidemic. At no other time is this indicated in either sees. Increase in both number of deaths and deaths per thousand in Buvuma is believed to be due to emigration of Bavuma (and perhaps some Basoga) from the Busoga coast and islands, where depopulation was attempted in 1907. A similar effect, not quite so marked, is noticeable
in Beese.
¶ Number of deaths per thousand dropped lower in Buvuma than in Sesse. various reasons for a continued higher death-rate in Sesse, discussed elsewhere.
There are
** The effect of depopulation appears much more notable in the figures from Sesse than in those from Buvums, where, to speak frankly, it appears to have had no effect in accelerating the rate of decrease in number of deaths.
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