PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE
Reference :-
C.O. 885
ALLY WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE BE REPRODUCED PHOTOGRAPHIC- COPYRIGHT PHOTOGRAPH-NOT TO
22 PUBLIC RECORD OFFICE, LONDON
78
Canal will provide a direct route to Asia and India from Europe, the United States, and the endemic area of yellow fever, and that after the canal is open for traffic there will be a danger of yellow fever being conveyed to India by direct shipping to that country from, or by way of, ports in the endemic area on the Atlantic side of the canal. But charts on Mercator's projection give a distorted view of the features of the earth and a wrong impression of the shortest distances between most ports, so that in order to ascertain whether our first ideas are tenable, and to enable the problem with which India is concerned to be accurately stated, it will be convenient to begin the attempt to estimate the degree of risk of the introduction of yellow fever into that country with a tabular record of the shortest distances between certain ports. This information is contained in the following statement, which has been spaced with a view to show that problems of " the East are sometimes only very indirectly problems of India.
London via Suez London via Panama New York via Suez
Jamaica vid Cape Town Jamaica vid Panama Barbudos vid Suez... Barbados vid Cape Town Barbados vid Panama Colon via Suez
TABLE OF DISTANCES IN NAUTICAL MILES.
To
From
Calcutta. Colombo.
Bombay.
Singa- Hong
pore.
Kong. Shanghai. hama. Sydney.
Yoko-
New York vid l'anama
New Orleans via Suez
New Orleans via Panama...
13,824
Havana vid Suez
Havana vid Panama
Jamaica rid Suez
Colon via Cape Town
Colon via Panama...
14,758
7,902 6,702 6,260 8,248 9,688 10,437 11,150 17,186 17,133 18,206 15,556 14,116 13,16-1
9,795 8,595
3,153 10,141 11,580 12,324 14,416 14,363 15,436 12,786 11,346 10,694 11,138 9,938 9,502 11,484 12,924 13,667 13,771 14,844 12,194 10,754 10,102 10,636 9,436 9,000 10,982 12,428 13,165 12,994 12,011 14,014 11,364 9,924 10,480 9,280 8,844 10,826 12,266
10,618 12,944 12,941 14,014 11,364 9,924
9,841 8,041 8,199 10.187 11,627 12,370 13,089 10,764 9,652 9,888 10,915 12,182 12,925 13,644 13,669 13,616 14,689 12,036 10,599 9,947 8,977 11,138 9,725 9,283 11,271 12,711 13,454❘ 14,173
10,768 12,444 12,391 13,194 10,814 9,374 8,722
7,752 9,904 8,701 8,262 10,250 11,690 12,433 13,152
8,934 9,961
11,204 11,947 12,690 14,767
14,831 13,181 11,741
11,538 12,894 12,484 13,042 14,808 9,724 9,714 14,386 9,132
13,890
9,272
8,302
13,009
13,728
9,272
8,302
11,089
10,119
Bahia via Panaina ...
Bahia vid Cape Town
Salina Cruz vidi Mexican
Railway and Suez.
Salina Cruz via Pacific
11,084
Callao vid Straits of Magel-
11,983
11,104
lan.
Callao via Pacific
13,072
Valparaiso rid Strails of
9,875
Magellan.
13,871
Para vid Suez
Para via Cape Town
Bahia via Suez
Para via Panama
Valparaiso viú Pacific
||
1
| | | |
| | | |
||
Considering first only the columns of the table relating to Indian ports, the following conclusions may be drawn :-
(1) The opening of the Panama Canal is not likely to be followed by direct traffic from Europe through the endemic area to India, for the distance between London and India is on an average 10,500 miles longer by the new route than by way of the Suez Canal. This is important, because most of India's seaborne trade is with Europe.
(2) It is not likely to be followed by direct traffic from the United States through the endemic area to India, for New York is on an average 6,800 miles, and New Orleans 3,200 miles, nearer to India by way of Suez than by way of Panama.
(3) It is not likely to be followed by direct traffic from the endemic area viâ Panama to India, for much the shortest routes to that country from the West Indies, Mexico, the Central American Republics, the Panama Canal zone. Colombia, Venezuela, and Guiana will still be
79
by way of Suez, and from Brazil the shortest route is by way of the Cape of Good Hope. Major Tucker, in the paper already mentioned, suggests that Jamaica may be a place from which there will be direct traffic to India, but if this were to happen the route would surely be by way either of the Suez Canal or the Cape of Good Hope; the distance from Jamaica to Bombay by the Suez route is about 5,100 miles shorter than by way of the Panama Canal. In this connexion it is noteworthy that the Republic of Panama already imports Burmese rice, which goes by way of Liverpool or Hamburg to Colon.
(4) It is believed that the opening of the canal will result in a great increase of trade in the Pacific coast ports of South America, and it might be conjectured that direct trade between those ports and India will follow. For many reasons this is very unlikely to happen; but even if there were direct trade between, say, Peru or Chile and India, the best route would be from Callao and Valparaiso viâ the Straits of Magellan and the Cape of Good Hope-for the distance from Valparaiso to Bombay by that route is nearly 4,000 miles shorter than by the trans-Pacific route.
Distances, of course, are not the only factors to be considered in attempting to foretell future trade routes, but in the present case the conclusions to which their study leads are supported by other considerations, and on the whole it seems clear that the spread of yellow fever to India, if such happens, will not be the result of direct trans-Pacific shipping to that country from or through the endemic area in Central and Southern America.
If the same line of enquiry is now applied with regard to ports further east than India, it will be found that when we get beyond Singapore the conclusions are, with one important exception, the reverse of those arrived at regarding India; in general the distances to Japan, China, Australia, and the East Indies will be much shorter by the new route than by the present ones, and for this reason direct traffic to those countries through and from the endemic area may be expected. An examination of the columns of the tabular statement which refer to ports beyond Singapore will make this clear, and in addition it will be noted that by the new route Yokohama and Australia will be nearer to New York than to London. The exception is with regard to the distances between Europe and the countries named above; it will be seen that for trade between Europe and those countries the Panama Canal will not provide a shorter route than the present one by way of the Suez Canal, and this, of course, is important as indicating that the through traffic viâ the endemic area to the East will not be so great as has sometimes been anticipated. If we judge by the factor of distance alone it is clear from the table that the through traffic to the East by the new route will be confined to traffic from the United States; and even as regards that traffic it must be noted (a) that the Panama Canal route has to compete with the routes by way of the trans-continental railways of Canada and the United States, and the inter-oceanic railways of Mexico, Guatemala, and Costa Rica, (b) that for the trade from New York to Hong Kong the Panama Canal route will have to compete with the present one viâ the Suez Canal, for the gain in distance is not much more than 200 miles.
Major Tucker, in his paper, suggests that the direct trade between England and Hong Kong will be greatly facilitated by the opening of the canal, but this view is not supported by the facts that the new route from London to Hong Kong will be about 4,400 miles longer than the present one viâ the Suez Canal, and will even be about 1,000 miles longer than the route via the Cape of Good Hope.
It is now justifiable to sum up the conclusions resulting from the above line of enquiry by saying that "the new danger to the East is a direct danger as far only as Hong Kong, and that the spread of yellow fever to the Straits Settle- ments and to India, by the route which we have been considering, cannot result. except as a secondary event subsequent to, and consequent upon, the infection of ports in Japan, China, the East Indies, or Australia. This opinion is doubt- less held by all who have studied the subject, but I do not find that stress is laid upon it in the articles that I have read; and it seems to me to be of material importance in connexion with the new danger to which India will be exposed.
The problem of immediate concern, therefore, is the possible spread of yellow fever, not to India, but to the other countries just named. This problem has to do both with the conveyance of the disease from, or by way of, the Panama Canal, and with its conveyance from various Pacific coast ports which are already in
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.