2 June 1949
TOP SECRET
..8..
JIC(FE)(49)21(Final)
bombs were dropped. Night attacks by Chinese aircraft are highly improbable, and their ability to concentrate their day attacks would be affected by the variety of types of aircraft employed and their own inexperience.
35.
We estimate therefore that the scale of the initial raid would be as follows:-
(a)
Light Bomber
(b)
Liberator
(c) Fighter G/A
Mom
37 12
88
The lower figure in each case represents 20% of what is believed to be the minimum force a vailable, whilst the larger figure represents 50% of the maximum force available if the entire Nationalist Air
The scale and frequency of Force goes over to the Communists. subsequent attacks is unlikely to be high and the present Communist Air Force could probably not carry our any subsequent raids at all. Augmented by the entire Nationalist Air Force, the highest rate that could be expected in subsequent attacks allowing 10% casualties in the initial raid would be:-
Light Bomber
Liberator
Fighter G/A
Dry
500
70
2000
Monsoon
250
>
70
)
Sorties per
month.
1600
)
Operating at this rate and suffering 10% casualties per raid, from all causes, the Force would be extinguished in a maximum of five weeks. Nevertheless even at its minimum the air threat cannot be discounted as the moral effect of a few bombs on the unstable population would be out of all proportion to the weight of attack delivered or the material damage.
36.
The time at which the air threat is likely to develop will
When the Army is be subordinated to the requirements of the Army. ready to attack Hong Kong the Air Force will be required to participate. Independent air attacks upon Hong Kong before this time are unlikely.
Maritime Threat
37.
Numbers of ships were acquired by the Communists from the Nationalist navy during the fighting on the Yangtze, and further defections may well occur. The list below shows the present believed naval strength of the Communists, and the maximum strength which their navy might reach if all existing operational nationalist war- ships defected to them, or were handed over as a result of a peace treaty.
TOP SECRET
Page 95Page 96
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.