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1.
2.
ANNEX
DETAILED COMMENTS BY THE JOINT INTELLIGENCE COMMITTEE
ON
J.I.C. (FE) PAPER "THE THREATS TO HONG KONG "
Paragraph 3.
(a) In the last sentence, it is suggested that
approximately 150,000 Chinese Communist troops might reach the Hong Kong area. It is diffi- cult to place a limit on the number of troops which the Communists could deploy in the area, although the number actually employed in an assault on Hong Kong will be very limited owing to the narrowness of the front.
(b) In view of the latest information the earliest
date by which the main forces will reach the Canton area is now estimated to be mid-August, and not early July. This comment also applies to the last line of paragraph 14 of the Annex.
Paragraph 4.
(a) It is assumed that the phrase "During this
period" at the beginning of the paragraph refers to the Cold War period as covered by paragraphs 14-21 of the Annex.
3.
(76)
Whilst guerilla raids across the frontier
(vide last line of page 1) might take place once
the Communist regular forces have closed on Hong Kong, we consider that the infiltration of agents in considerable numbers is much more probable.
Paragraph 6. It is too strong to state that a total embargo against Hong Kong's trade with the mainland would be disastrous. Well over half of the Colony's recorded trade is with countries other than China. This general conclusion has been confirmed by the Governor recently.
4. Paragraph 9. It is considered that even in the un- likely event of the whole of the Nationalist Air Force de- fecting to the Communiste, not more than about forty medium and heavy bombers, supported by 70 fighter bombers, are likely to be used in the initial air attack against Hong Kong.
5. Paragraph 10. It is considered that the threat from the Communist Navy has been dismissed rather too lightly. The Joint Intelligence Committee estimate that the Communists have some 65 ships including 6 Destroyer Escorts and 17 Gun- boats. Although the efficiency of this force is thought to be low at present, it might be welded into an effective fighting force in a comparatively short time and might be of considerable nuisance value if employed against trade.
+ JIC (49) 44/5 94001/35
Telegram Hong Kong to Colonial Office, No.579 dated 14th June, 1949. 54145
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