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94007/28
148
MINISTRY OF DEFENCE,
STOREY'S GATE,
S.W.1.
J.I.C./1260/49
Secretary,
Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East)
THE THREATS TO HONGKONG
The Joint Intelligence Committee have examined the report by the Joint Intelligence Committee (Far East) entitled "The Threats to Hong Kong" and have made the following general comments thereon.
2.
3.
The paper states as its first conclusion:
"(a) The return of Hong Kong to China is an
important part of the Chinese Communist programme.
(b) They will do their best to achieve this.
without recourse to open attack on the Colony."
As regards 2(a) no time schedule is given. The Joint Intelligence Committee do not doubt that the return of Hong Kong to China is an ultimate aim of the Chinese Communists, as it must be of any conceivable Chinese Government, but evidence obtained from Communist documents captured in Hong Kong seems to suggest that it is at the moment not an immediate plan.
4. As regards 2(b), it is clear that the communists are seeking every means of stepping up their organisation and grip on the Chinese in Hong Kong, as indeed they are doing in all the centres of Chinese overseas and as the Kuomintang did before them. The Joint Intelligence Committee have however no evidence that the organisation which the Commu-- nists have built up is being geared to early action against British rule in Hong Kong. On the contrary, it is not im possible that the trading value of Hong Kong in British hands may in the immediate future be of such great importance to them that they may temporarily acquiesce in the status quo. At any rate such evidence as there is suggests that they have probably not yet decided to take early action.
5.
The Joint Intelligence Committee have examined this evidence in greater detail in their fortnightly review of the situation in South China as at 28th June, 1949.
6.
Throughout the paper and particularly in paragraphs 43 to 48 of the Annex, reference is made to conditions which might prevail in the event of war between the Soviet Union
+ J.I.C.(F.E.) (49) 21 (Final) (134)
7 J.1.C. (49) 44/4 94001/35 M. Hari)
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