CO537-4998 — Page 71

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274,44

The Committee had before them a memorandum by the Minister of Defence (D.0.(49) 32) recommending the despatch to Hong Fong of a Brigade Group from the United Vingdom and a Fighter Squadron from Valaya; and making it clear that it was the view of the Chiefs of Staff that these reinforcements, together with the forces already there, would be adequate to deal with such threats to the Colonies as were likely to arise in the foreseeable future as a result of the Communist successes in China, namely:

(i) internal unrest, probably sponsored by Communist-

inspired trade unions;

(ii)

a large-scale influx of refugees in numbers beyond

the capacity of the Colony to absorb;

(iii) external aggression by guerilla bands, probably

Communist-inspired.

As far as the likely threats were concerned, the Committee felt that in view of the swiftly-moving events in China it was very desirable that the Chiefs of Staff should prepare an up-to-date appreciation of the extent to which Hong Yong was likely to be threatened if the Communists secured control of virtually the whole of China. Thereafter, the defence needs of the Colony would have to be kept udner close and continuous review. Subject to this, the Committee were disposed to agree that the three main threats were most likely to be internal unrest, large-scale influx of refugees in numbers beyond the capacity of the Colony to absorbe, and external aggression by guerilla bands; though it would be a mistake to assume that all these threats would only arise from Communist inspiration at some stage or other it was not at all inconceivable that the Nationalists would consider it in their interests to stir up trouble for us in or around the Colony. As regards the strength of the reinforcements proposed, the Committee accepted the view of the Chiefs of Staff that these would be sufficient to enable the present garrison to resist the threats as at present assessed in

paragraph 2.of D.0.(49) 32 and generally agreed that the opportunity of available shipping to despatch a Brigade Headquarters and a Battalion on or about 1st "ay should be taken, and that all possible preparations should be made to send the remainder of the Brigade Group, for the despatch of which, however, the authority of the Prime Minister should be sought. THE CHIEF OF THE AIR STAFF said that he had had a signal from the Air Commander-in-Chief, Far East, reporting that it had already been decided to send a Fighter Squadron from Malaya to Hong Kong. The Commanders-in-Chief were, of course, within their rights in making a move of this natute within their own area.

The Committee then recalled the anxiety which had been expressed in Parliament at the inclusion, in the Guards Brigade which had been sent to Malaya, of young National Servicemen who had received very little training, and surprise was expressed that the Brigade Group which it was now proposed to send to Hong Yong would apparently include a number of National Servicemen who had been called up since 1st January, 1949.

1949. While recognising that one of the

ma in