J
TOP SECRET
possess sound tactical principles and are able to execute complex plans. Their armament includes a high proportion of automatic weapons and artillery up to 105 min. Their equipment in general is mainly of Japanese and American origin. The mount they possess has undoubtedly increased as a result of recent fi hting, since it is reported that a large percentage of the Nationalist Forces have either defected or 'abandoned their arms, most of which are probably American pattern. Their tanks are few, old and small have virtually no motor transport.
Air Threat
12.
·
They
Although it has been known for some time that the Communists have been training on old Japanese aircraft, up to the present they have not made any use of aircraft in operations. It is known that they have obtained some aircraft by defection from Nationalist Forces and 21 aircraft comprising 3 Liberators, 5 Mustangs, 2 Mitchells and 11 Dakotas have been identified. There may be other aircraft not at present identified. will also undoubtedly be many others left behind by the Nationalists in an unserviceable condition. Some of these might be made serviceable provided sufficient maintenance personnel could be made available from captured Nationalist troops or civil air companies.
13.
There
The Communists have at present no operational air experience and the morale of those Nationalist aircrews who have defected is low and they are most unlikely to be prepared to press home any attack in the face of any opposition. In · view of this, any air threat to the Colony is likely to be short lived, badly conceived and lacking in determination.
14.
We do not believe that there is likely to be any further appreciable defection from the Nationalist Air Force but should a peace be arranged, the transfer of the Nationalist Air Forces at present in Formosa would undoubtedly be one of the conditions imposed by the Communists. This might bring some further 450 modern aircraft under Communist control. But unless the Communists are reinforced by Russian personnel, which we consider to be most unlikely at present, the standard of operational technique would remain low and determination to press home the attack would be lacking.
Naval Threat
15.
•
At the time of the crossing of the Yangtze, the Nationalist Navy consisted of the following ships:
6 Destroyers
.4 Destroyer Escorts
12 Escort Vessels
11 Minesweepers
3 Patrol Boats
12 Submarine Chasers
Some 37 Landing Craft
Some of these are ex-Japanese and were turned over disarmed. A few have been re-armed by the Nationalists and there is nothing to stop the Communists continuing this process.
-3-
TOP SECRET
L
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.