CO537-4998 — Page 243

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TOP SECRET CYPHER TELEGRAM

DESPATCHED BY O.T.P.

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OPERATIONAL IMMEDIATE

From Ministry of Defence, London.

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15th January, 1949-

Το : G.H.. Far East Land Forces.

COSSEA 665

For FEDSEC.

For Commanders-in-Chief Committee from

Chiefs of Staff.

-94001/29 (For Earl Generally

Seine)

Reference SEACOS 872 and 874.

In view of forthcoming meeting of Colonial Governors at Singapore, to be followed by B.D.C.C. Far East, meeting at which defence of Hong Kong will be discussed, we have examined, in consult- ation with Colonial Office, questions arising out of the defence of Hong Kong before consider- ing overall strategic implications in the Far East of present developments in China.

2.

The provisional military conclusions of our examination are as follows:·

(a) The internal security threat as envisaged by you may materialise before the third quarter of 1949.

(b) The most immediate threat to the Colony is a vast influx of refugees; Communist inspired strikes may occur simultaneously.

(c)

The repercussion of such an influx on the internal security and administrat- ive commitments in Hong Kong would be extremely serious.

(d) The military garrison must therefore be prepared to concentrate at present on aiding the Civil Government in meeting the immediate refugee threat, since the possib- ility of external aggression is more remote.