CO537-4998 — Page 151

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(d) So far as is possible, all

means by which the

enemy might surprise us must be studied and guard against.

The most obvious ways which might be tried are:

(i) landings by junk, sampan, etc.

(ii) Concentrations made under cover of carrying out

anti-bandit operations.

(iii) Making use of the rail and road entries to the

Colony for a quick surprise penetration by strong forces.

MORALE.

18.

10.

(a) Initial success or failure in the battle will have a

great morale effect upon cur Defence Forces,

the enemy and the European and Chinese populations of the Colony, more especially since all will look back at the previous invasion during orld War II.

?

(b) The incursion will, in all probability, be carried out

by forces controlling CANTON and the initial success that the enemy attains will determine the support he will obtain from the local population.

Deductions.

(a) It is of great importance that the battle, from the

start, be fought as offensively as possible and that no territory be surrendered to the enemy unnecessarily. Planning should not merely be defensive but offensive operations should be undertaken as early as possible, if it is considered to be to our advantage. From the morale point of view to take the offensive will have immense advantages. To remain on the defensive unnecessarily will

make the task of coping with the internal situation far more difficult.

(b) If ground in the NEW TERRITORIES is surrendered the

maintenance of a civil administration in the remaining areas will be difficult.

(c) The whole success of a defence of HONG KONG Colony may well depend upon our initial actions, if these are prejudicial to the morale of the civil population, the internal situation may well make further resistance impractical.

GROUND.

20.

21.

(a) The area to be defended by the Regular Forces likely to be available is so large that it is impossible to be strong everywhere or to hold all possible lines of approach by enemy forces.

(b) The distance from the Frontier to the vital Harbour area

by road is 25 miles.

Deductions.

The ground which gives our forces: -

(a) Observation of likely lines of advance.

•/(b)