CO537-4825 — Page 30

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Effect in Chins would be indifference or violent

hostility which attitude *(corrupt group) of

(group omitted) in power.

Reaction in China would in any case be dictated by consideration not related to merits of decision but if Chinese blood were shed I consider it certain that there would be violent reaction in China with repercussions, e.g. attempts at general strike in the Colony which would strain security forces (- already guarding frontier) to utmost.

I would propose

4. The frontier is 12 miles long. to erect barbed wire on at least some of it to canalise points of entry. Survey is being undertaken to determine what sections could and should be wired and w produce estimated coat.

5. It is in my opinion desirable to avoid wiring frontier or police area until pecessity for doing so is a good deal clearer than at present.

Any such move might precipitate situation and would certainly create uneasiness on both sides of the border, to say nothing of possibility of provoking resentment from both parties in China. But I can begin preparations to wire parts of the frontier under cover of helping with efficient implementation of Customs Agreement and this I propose to do,

6. By partial wiring and use of police supported by three battalions plus such a id as is possible from reconstitution of Defence Force, I estimate that there would be a reasonable chance of closing the frontier without bloodshed and with sufficient effect to deter influx reaching dangerous (?proportions) provided that influx was predominantly civilian.

If however civil warfare in China were to be carried on in real earnest to the vicinity of our borders, with consequent possibility of large bodies of armed troops from one side or the other seeking asylum in this Colony, the resources at present available to me, even with full gerrison and fully recruited and trained Hong Kong Defence Force, are inadequate and large reinforcement would be required if the Colony were to maintain itself in this situation. almost inevitable.

Bloodshed would be I do not however at present consider this eventuality likely. See my telegram No. 1068.

7. There is doubt whether really effective closure of seazard froutier is possible, mainly owing to its length Of approximately 200 miles. Effectiveness is very dependent on

(a) other current commitments of Services;

(6)

(c)

8.

provision of suitable patrol craft;

extent to which water traffic including junks and sampans could be canalised into select routes.

However, by use of police patrol craft, some assistance from small number of naval auxiliery craft available and aircraft patrol in conjunction with canalised traffic coast watching, backed by mobile army patrol, reasonably effective closure should be obtained. Requirements are fast small patrol craft none of which are available and a mobile army reconnaissance element not (repeat not) at present available,

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