CO537-4802 — Page 43

INWARD TELEGRAM

This document must be paraphrased if the communication of its contents to any person outside Government Service is authorised.

12

Typex

TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR THE COLONIES

FROM HONG KONG (Sir A. Grantham)

D. 10th June, 19

1949. R. 10th 10

13.00 hrs.

No.566

Secret.

RECEIVED 11 JUN 1949 COLONIAL OFFICE

Addressed to 8. of 3.

Repeated to Deputy Commissioner General

(Colonial Affairs) by saviegram.

(9)

DEFENCE & GENERAL

Your telegram No.652,

Chinese refugees,

༡ ? N=575 4

vide (14)

11 JUN 1949 REGISTRY

(5)

As statod in my telegram No.514 not incre260 over last six months is about 118,000. The Colony could absorb further 150,000 approximately before facilities in the way of vater, fuel and socezmodation would be strained to the utmoet. So far as wator is concerned (which in dry winter months is most serious problem) summer rains have already started. Arrivals over last six months are either,

2

(a)

Refugees with some oapital of their own who are able to live with friends or relativea, or

(b) Poor refugees of coolie or artisan class

who live in squatters areas (which are stil expanding end are periodically olaared up). Most of them come within category (a)

Closing

Croasing of frontier would not (repeat not) prevent infiltration of Communists.

3. Comparative peaceful takeover of Shanghai by Communiata will make Chinese in South China less likely to leave their homes than if the city had been raped. Return trend towards Shanghai is already evident. They are anxious to get home if for no other reason then they find Hong Kong too expensive. Net influx last week just under 4,000. If therefore policy of Communists on taking over new areas continues as it has to date, I do not anticipate large influx of refugee6. It is however always possibility. Greatest danger as I see it is in deserting or defeated Nationalist soldiers whom we should disarm and push back over the frontier as quiokly as possible. Approximately 1,000 from Amoy and Swatow have already been received, disarmed and returned to China.

40 Position therefore is that there is still a long way to go before we reach saturation point and whilet there are for things I abould like to see better than decrease in population let alone cessation of increase, there is really no half way house (except reducing number of trains from Canton) between present open door policy and shutting door

Completely