002 32
e Sub-Committee
anning Staff to
lation by the
fence of Hong Kong,
hreat to Hong Kong, ntelligence
n-Chief, Hong Kong's llowa:-
no nation except
ng Kong from British between China and
o remote as to be
cover the Colony,
hina diplomatic
t mounting an attack
success in the
an.
posal are estimated
en, and is never fighting force.
the present day
.ned and equipped by
it to approximately
• about 390,000
oped with infantry
I and medium artillery.
lery personnel is
lome captured
lable but a co-
ed formations is
I not been developed
cms
2
CO 537/1260
THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES
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but the Chinese are known to be in possession of an American trained Parachute Regiment; this regiment has not so far had battle experience. Without American aid, the Chinese Army would be ineffective against trained troops, and in the unlikely event of war between Great Britain and China, we consider that American personnel would not participate on the side of China.
(c) Air Force
It is estimated that, at present, China has
available 400 first line aircraft to which total are being added approximately 400 Japanese and at least 300 modern American planes. Severe limitations would be imposed on their operational use by poor servicing, once American supervision is withdrawn. It is considered that, under these conditions, air support for military operations could not be Bustained but would be limited to sporadic raids, which would be ineffective in face of opposition. The danger of mining by aircraft is considered negligible.
POLITICAL FACTORS
Past
5. The declared policy of the Central Government is to recover Hong Kong by diplomatic means, This policy has been maintained since Japan's surrender, and was reaffirmed by Chiang Kai-shek in a speech on 24th August, 1945. experience and present indications suggest, however, that the Chinese will not confine themselves to purely diplomatic means in bringing pressure to bear for the recovery of Hong Kong. For example, a propaganda campaign
to recover the colony for China has already been experienced
It is
in a mild form, and has recently been reinforced by a press agitation arising out of the displacement of Chinese from the site of a new airfield in the New Territories. considered that the campaign will be maintained and intensified by the Central Government as a natural prelude and adjunct to pressure by diplomatic means for the recovery of the Colony. This pressure is likely to be directed in the first place against the New Territories, a formal claim for whose retrocession is to be expected in the near future.
POSSIBLE FORMS OF ATTACK
6.
(A) Direct assault by land on the Frontier of the New Territories. There might also
be some unco-ordinated and limited mining by junks.
(B) Ineffective air raids on Port or Military installations, which may, however, have some effect on civilian morale,
(C) Individual raids by pirates for personal
gain.
(D) Sporadic Guerilla raids as the result of
internal unrest or civil war in China.
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Please note that this co
CO 537/1260
THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES
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restrictions. Further information is given in the enclosed Terms and Conditions of supply of National Archives" leaflet
ed subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyright
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