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Ref.:
CO 537/1260
THE NATIONAL ARCHIVES
restrictions For is supplied subject to the National Archives' terms and conditions and that your use of it may be subject to copyrigh
lease note that this copy is supormation is given in the anclosed Terms and Conditions of supply of National Archives' scaflet
(a) A direct land assault by a Chinese army of
up to 75,000 mon, led by a Southern Wor Lord is a potential threat.
(e) Piracy on local shipping is a possibility
at all times.
(f) Guerilla army night march on Hong Kong
as the result of internal unrest or civil war in Ching.
Summary of Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee Rupert
3. We attron at Annex report by the Joint Intelligence Sub-Couristec, in which they canning Sections II and III of the Commander-in-Chief's sppreciation.
This report shows that:-
(a) The J.I.C. groc with C.-in-C., Hong Kong
regarding China's cspirations. There are indications, however, that the Chinese will not confine themselves to purely diplo- matic means in bringing pressure to betr for the recovery of Hong Kong.
(b) direct land assault on the how Territories,
coupled with ineffective cir raide on port or military installations (which might havo some offcct on civilin morale) and limited mining from junks, is only likely in the future 12 open hostilitics break out with the Central overment. The po sibility of this within the next te.. years is so remote as to be negligible.
(c) Modern as l equipa nt including nircraft
and trensport, Woull not in all probability be available to a provincial War Lord, should onc arisa in S. Ching to chall ng the rule of Chiang Kai-Shek. The possibility of an attack by a provincial Wra Lord can also be excluded as long as a garrison of approximately its prosunt size is available to rct as a deterrent.
(d) The most likely form or attack is by
infiltration of a large number of agents into the Chin ce population to organia strikes, civil unrest and boycott. This might well be carried out in conjunction with the interruption of Pood and other supplies to the Colony from China, to land veight to the political cumpaign for recovery of Hong Kong.
(e) The movements of Chinese to nd from Hong Kong
cannot be controlla; arms up to and including 1.4.G. and all mortars can be anugled into th. Colony in large quantities.
Enclosure to Annex I.
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